考虑长期负荷概率预测的储能多阶段优化配置

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.02.003

综合智慧能源 ›› 2024, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 19-27.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.02.003

考虑长期负荷概率预测的储能多阶段优化配置

李益民¹(), 董海鹰¹^,^*(), 丁坤², 王金岩¹

1.兰州交通大学新能源与动力工程学院，兰州 730070
2.国网甘肃省电力公司电力科学研究院，兰州 730070

收稿日期:2023-05-11 修回日期:2023-06-23 出版日期:2024-02-25 发布日期:2023-08-16
通讯作者: *董海鹰（1966），男，教授，博士，从事新能源电力系统规划、分析、运行与控制技术方面的研究，hydong@mail.lzjtu.cn。
作者简介:李益民（1999），男，硕士生，从事新能源电力系统规划、储能优化配置方面的研究，lym18715160987@163.com。
基金资助:
甘肃省科技重大专项(22ZD6GA032)

Multi-stage optimal allocation of energy storage considering long-term load probability prediction

LI Yimin¹(), DONG Haiying¹^,^*(), DING Kun², WANG Jinyan¹

1. College of New Energy and Power Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
2. Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730070, China

Received:2023-05-11 Revised:2023-06-23 Online:2024-02-25 Published:2023-08-16
Contact: DONG Haiying
Supported by:
Major Science and Technology Project of Gansu Province(22ZD6GA032)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着高比例新能源对电网的逐渐渗透，其出力的随机性和不确定性对电力系统的安全稳定运行提出了更高的要求。储能的源荷双向特征，可以作为灵活性资源提升电网的调节能力，当应用在电网侧时，储能配置的功率和容量大小影响电力系统的稳定运行和经济规划。提出了一种考虑长期负荷概率预测的储能多阶段优化配置方法，对电网侧的独立大规模储能进行容量配置。首先，分析电网侧独立储能的成本效益，以多阶段经济性最优为目标，采用非参数组合回归的长期负荷概率预测模型，建立优化模型并采用改进粒子群算法求解。最后，用酒泉地区电力系统进行算例分析，验证所提方法和模型的可行性和优越性，并且从峰谷电价差和新能源利用率两个方面对储能经济性进行了灵敏度分析。

关键词: 储能优化配置, 长期负荷预测, 多阶段规划, 灵敏度分析, 高比例新能源

Abstract:

With the gradual penetration of high-proportion new energy into the power grid,the randomness and uncertainty of its output puts forward higher requirements for the safe and stable operation of the power system. An energy storage device can be taken as a power user and a flexibility source, improving the regulation capacity of the power grid. When it is applied on grid side,its power and capacity configuration will affect the stable operation and economic planning of the power system. A multi-stage optimal allocation method of energy storage considering long-term load probability prediction is proposed, to reasonably allocate the capacity of independent large-scale energy storage devices on grid side. Firstly, the cost-effectiveness analysis is conducted on the independent energy storage device on grid side, then the long-term load probability prediction model based on nonparametric combinatorial regression is used to achieve the multi-stage economic optimization. And the optimization model is established and solved by improved particle swarm algorithm. Finally,taking a power system in Jiuquan area as the study case, the sensitivity analysis of energy storage economy is made from the two aspects, peak-valley electricity price difference and new energy utilization rate, and the results verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed optimal allocation method.

Key words: optimal configuration of energy storage, long-term load forecasting, multi-phase planning, sensitivity analysis, high-proportion new energy

中图分类号:

TK01

李益民, 董海鹰, 丁坤, 王金岩. 考虑长期负荷概率预测的储能多阶段优化配置[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2024, 46(2): 19-27.

LI Yimin, DONG Haiying, DING Kun, WANG Jinyan. Multi-stage optimal allocation of energy storage considering long-term load probability prediction[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2024, 46(2): 19-27.

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参数	数值
单位功率成本c_p/（元·kW^-1）	1 270
单位容量成本s_p/[元·(kW·h)^-1]	1 650
折算系数β_j	0.13
通货膨胀率k/%	1.5
贴现率d/%	9
充电效率ηcha	0.9
放电效率ηdis	0.9
最大荷电状态S_{OC max}	0.8
最小荷电状态S_{OC min}	0.2
峰值电价/[元·(kW·h)^-1]	1.0
谷时电价/[元·(kW·h)^-1]	0.3

年份	不同分位点的预测值			规划
年份	20%	50%	80%	规划
2023	8 012	8 377	8 595	8 325
2024	9 158	9 574	9 824	9 491
2025	10 440	10 915	11 120	10 820

阶段	储能功率/MW	储能容量/(MW·h)
2023	1 100.1	6 166.7
2024	691.9	3 459.5
2025	918.5	3 674.0

考虑长期负荷概率预测的储能多阶段优化配置

Multi-stage optimal allocation of energy storage considering long-term load probability prediction

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