基于创新投入和碳价中介效应的碳交易政策对风电企业价值影响研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2026.03.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为加快实现“双碳”目标，可再生能源发展受到极大关注，“十四五”规划进一步提出加快推进可再生能源发展战略。当前风电已成为新能源发电的主力军，发展前景广阔，碳交易政策作为促进经济增长和碳减排的有效措施，能否促进风电企业价值及其影响途径研究有待深入。本研究以我国碳排放权交易试点为准自然试验，选取2010—2022年上市公司数据，构建双重差分（DID）模型分析碳交易对风电企业价值的影响，并进一步探讨创新投入和碳价在二者关系的中介效应。研究表明，碳交易政策显著提高风电企业市场价值，进行平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验等系列稳健性检验后结论依旧成立。进一步研究发现，创新投入和碳价能够显著促进碳交易对企业价值的提升效应。异质性检验发现，对于国有企业、低融资约束以及中小规模的企业，碳交易政策对企业价值的提升作用更为显著。基于此从政府和企业的角度提出建议：政府应完善碳市场建设、充分发挥碳市场活力，适度扩大政府补贴范围，支持企业技术创新；企业应创新固定资产管理方式，拓宽企业融资渠道，推动风电数智化转型。

关键词: 碳交易政策, 风电企业价值, 双重差分, 创新投入, 碳价

Abstract:

To accelerate the achievement of "dual carbon" goals，significant attention has been directed towards developing renewable energy.The "14th Five Year Plan" further proposes accelerating the implementation of renewable energy development strategy.Currently，wind power has become the main force in new energy generation，showing extensive development potential.As a key measure to promote economic growth and carbon reduction，carbon trading policies require further research on whether they can promote the value of wind power enterprises and the pathways through which this occurs.The carbon emission trading pilot in China was used as a quasi-natural experiment，with data from listed companies between 2010 and 2022 selected to construct a double difference-in-differences（DID）model to analyze the impact of carbon trading on the value of wind power enterprises.The mediating effects of innovation investment and carbon prices in this relationship were also explored. Findings indicated that carbon trading policies significantly enhanced the market value of wind power enterprises，with the conclusions remaining robust after conducting parallel trend tests，placebo tests，and other robustness checks.Further analysis revealed that innovation investment and carbon prices significantly promoted the positive effect of carbon trading on enterprise value.Heterogeneity tests demonstrated that the effects were more pronounced among state-owned enterprises，those with low financing constraints，and small to medium-sized enterprises. Based on these findings， suggestions were made from both government and enterprise perspectives： the government should improve carbon market construction，fully leverage the vitality of the carbon market，appropriately expand the scope of government subsidies，and support corporate technological innovation；enterprises should innovate in fixed asset management，broaden financing channels，and promote the digital and intelligent transformation of wind power.

Key words: carbon trading policy, value of wind power enterprises, difference-in-difference, innovation investment, carbon price

中图分类号:

TK 01

廖志高, 耿南方. 基于创新投入和碳价中介效应的碳交易政策对风电企业价值影响研究[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2026, 48(3): 85-95.

LIAO Zhigao, GENG Nanfang. Research on impacts of carbon trading policies on the value of wind power enterprises based on the mediating effects of innovation investment and carbon price[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2026, 48(3): 85-95.

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变量		说明
被解释变量	TobinQ	市值/总资产
解释变量	did	若企业所在地实施碳交易试点政策则取1，否则为0
控制变量	Size	公司总资产的自然对数
	LEV	年末总负债除以年末总资产
	ROE	净利润除以总资产
	Cashflow	经营活动产生的现金流量净额除以总资产
	ATO	营业收入/平均资产总额
	INV	存货净额与总资产的比值
	Dual	董事长与总经理是同一个人为1，否则为0

项目	TobinQ1	TobinQ2	TobinQ3	TobinQ4
did	0.308 6***	0.421 9***	0.315 0***	0.508 8***
did	(0.000 2)	(0.000 0)	(0.000 3)	(0.000 9)
Size		-0.131 7***	-0.161 9***	-0.222 9**
Size		(0.006 8)	(0.000 5)	(0.042 1)
LEV		0.543 9**	0.441 2*	0.264 4
LEV		(0.046 1)	(0.059 3)	(0.633 7)
ROE		0.153 3	-0.187 5	-0.418 9
ROE		(0.702 0)	(0.601 4)	(0.256 9)
ATO		0.784 0***	0.706 3***	1.070 3***
ATO		(0.000 3)	(0.000 2)	(0.001 4)
Cashflow		-0.381 9	-0.751 7	-0.234 2
Cashflow		(0.632 1)	(0.311 6)	(0.749 6)
INV		0.705 0	0.612 2	-0.102 0
INV		(0.328 1)	(0.355 7)	(0.920 9)
Dual		0.149 9	0.255 3***	0.235 7*
Dual		(0.120 2)	(0.002 8)	(0.078 4)
常数项	1.331 2***	3.601 1***	4.437 1***	5.765 2**
常数项	(0.000 0)	(0.000 7)	(0.000 0)	(0.017 0)
数量	139	135	135	135
R²	0.089 5	0.296 8	0.518 7	0.600 0
固定年份	否	否	是	是
固定个体	否	否	否	是

项目	TobinQ	ROA	L
did	0.297 0^**	0.013 9**	0.249 6*
did	(0.035 8)	(0.027 4)	(0.057 1)
Size	-0.274 8**	0.004 2	0.832 3***
Size	(0.014 2)	(0.354 1)	(0.000 0)
LEV	0.692 2	-0.041 3*	-1.885 2***
LEV	(0.209 2)	(0.077 9)	(0.000 2)
ROE	-0.286 0	0.263 3***	-0.383 8
ROE	(0.458 7)	(0.000 0)	(0.234 6)
ATO	0.852 4**	0.032 8**	0.802 8***
ATO	(0.010 5)	(0.018 5)	(0.005 9)
Cashflow	-0.352 5	0.014 6	1.051 1
Cashflow	(0.641 3)	(0.635 4)	(0.103 2)
INV	-0.273 2	-0.062 7	0.766 1
INV	(0.796 6)	(0.147 5)	(0.394 3)
Dual	0.271 0^**	0.012 9**	0.145 1
Dual	(0.049 6)	(0.022 2)	(0.213 1)
常数项	6.925 0***	-0.073 6	-14.312 7***
常数项	(0.005 0)	(0.461 7)	(0.000 0)
数量	135	135	135
R²	0.573 4	0.893 6	0.916 2
固定年份	是	是	是
固定个体	是	是	是

项目	TobinQ5	RD	TobinQ6
did	0.508 8***	1.254 3*	0.396 2**
did	(0.000 9)	(0.097 7)	(0.042 0)
Size	-0.222 9**	-0.158 4	-0.240 5*
Size	(0.042 1)	(0.771 4)	(0.082 6)
LEV	0.264 4	-6.122 6**	0.251 2
LEV	(0.633 7)	(0.028 1)	(0.724 5)
ROE	-0.418 9	-4.072 9**	-0.097 3
ROE	(0.256 9)	(0.019 6)	(0.827 6)
ATO	1.070 3***	3.902 9**	0.849 5*
ATO	(0.001 4)	(0.023 7)	(0.057 0)
Cashflow	-0.234 2	2.121 2	-0.693 7
Cashflow	(0.749 6)	(0.584 6)	(0.478 9)
INV	-0.102 0	1.194 2	-0.615 4
INV	(0.920 9)	(0.807 4)	(0.618 3)
Dual	0.235 7*	0.293 9	0.162 8
Dual	(0.078 4)	(0.621 2)	(0.279 4)
RD			0.065 0**
RD			(0.021 2)
常数项	5.765 2**	7.705 1	6.201 4**
常数项	(0.017 0)	(0.520 7)	(0.043 0)
数量	135	113	113
R²	0.600 0	0.662 3	0.632 8
固定年份	是	是	是
固定个体	是	是	是

项目	TobinQ7	price	TobinQ8
did	0.508 8***	0.060 5***	0.407 9*
did	(0.000 6)	(0.000 3)	(0.098 8)
Size	-0.222 9**	0.058 6***	-0.300 3**
Size	(0.039 6)	(0.000 0)	(0.045 9)
Lev	0.264 4	-0.181 0***	-0.173 6
Lev	(0.632 7)	(0.000 2)	(0.810 2)
ROE	-0.418 9	-0.032 7	-0.569 2
ROE	(0.254 3)	(0.304 9)	(0.200 1)
ATO	1.070 3***	0.082 7**	1.207 5**
ATO	(0.001 1)	(0.011 5)	(0.010 2)
Cashflow	-0.234 2	-0.004 4	-1.439 4
Cashflow	(0.748 9)	(0.957 0)	(0.205 1)
INV	-0.102 0	0.079 6	-1.029 3
INV	(0.920 7)	(0.445 6)	(0.477 5)
Dual	0.235 7*	-0.017 7	0.180 0
Dual	(0.075 5)	(0.177 6)	(0.327 4)
价格			2.856 7*
价格			(0.064 9)
常数项	5.835 2***	47.452 6***	-130.000 0*
常数项	(0.007 9)	(0.000 0)	(0.074 6)
数量	135	107	107
固定年份	是	是	是
固定个体	是	是	是