基于灰色周期组合模型的电力月度负荷预测方法

华电技术 ›› 2012, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 14-16.

基于灰色周期组合模型的电力月度负荷预测方法

乔松珊1，张建军2

1.中原工学院信息商务学院，河南郑州450007；2.河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院，河南郑州450002

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2012-08-25 发布日期:2012-08-25

Prediction method of monthly power load based on grey cycle combined model

QIAO Songshan1, ZHANG Jianjun2

1.College of Information & Business, Zhongyuan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450007, China; 2.College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2012-08-25 Published:2012-08-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

传统的灰色预测模型只能反映用电负荷的总体变化趋势，不能反映用电负荷随季节的波动特征。基于月调节指数，提出了灰色周期组合预测模型，研究了同时考虑2种趋势复杂的月度负荷预测问题，算例表明，与传统的预测方法相比，组合预测方法较好地提高了预测的精度。

关键词: 用电负荷, 灰色理论, 月调节指数, 组合模型, 预测精度

Abstract:

The traditional grey prediction model can reflect the general variation trend of the power load only, but it can not reflect the seasonal fluctuation feature of the power load. Based on the monthly adjusting coefficient, the grey cycle combined prediction model was proposed; and a complex monthly power load prediction with consideration of two tends was studied. The calculation example shows that the prediction accuracy of the combined prediction method is better than that of the traditional prediction method.

Key words: power load, grey theory, monthly adjustment coefficient, combined model, prediction accuracy

乔松珊;张建军. 基于灰色周期组合模型的电力月度负荷预测方法[J]. 华电技术, 2012, 34(8): 14-16.

QIAO Songshan;ZHANG Jianjun. Prediction method of monthly power load based on grey cycle combined model[J]. Huadian Technology, 2012, 34(8): 14-16.

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