园区受端新型电力系统电力电量再平衡方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.02.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

我国工业园区电能消耗占据了较高的比例，针对依托新型电力系统促进工业园区绿色低碳发展的需要，提出了一种面向工业园区受端新型电力系统的电力电量再平衡方法。首先，开展电力和电量需求预测并进行电力电量初平衡；然后，基于受端源网荷储协同作用并充分考虑园区节能、电能替代、各类分布式电源、储能和需求响应能力的作用进行电力电量再平衡，由此确定园区年度外调电和区内自产电的比例，进一步建立包含低碳效应和电力系统规模变化在内的量化指标评价体系，对电力电量再平衡带来的变配电容量缩减规模和降碳效用进行评价。以我国南方某工业园区新型电力系统的电力电量再平衡为例对以上方法进行了验证，结果表明：该园区2030年变配电规划容量可缩减10.1%，用电综合碳排放因子由0.60 kg/（kW·h）降至0.54 kg/（kW·h）；2060年变配电规划容量可缩减9.57%，电能替代实现减碳5.85 万t/a，可为受端新型电力系统的电力电量平衡提供有力的理论支撑。

关键词: 新型电力系统, 源网荷储, 电力电量平衡, 负荷预测, 电能替代, 储能, 低碳, 工业园区

Abstract:

Electricity consumption accounts for a high proportion in the total energy consumption of domestic industrial parks. In response to green and low-carbon development initiative of industrial parks, an electric power and energy rebalancing method for new power systems at the receiving ends of industrial parks is proposed. Firstly, electric power and energy demands are forecasted, and their initial balances are struck. Then, taking the coordination of source-grid-load-storage ends of a distribution network， and the energy conservation, electricity substitution, various distributed power sources, energy storage and demand response capability of industrial parks into consideration, electric power and energy are rebalanced. The proportions of electricity purchased from external power grid and electricity generated in the industrial park are annually adjusted according to the rebalancing results. Then, an evaluation system with quantitative indicators including carbon reduction effect and the size of power systems is established， which can evaluate the reduction effect on substation and distribution capacities and carbon emissions brought by electric power and energy rebalance. Finally, the proposed method is validated by a case of a new power system in an industrial park in southern China. The results indicate that: by 2030, the designed substation and distribution capacity of this park can be reduced by 10.1%, and the comprehensive carbon emission factor of electricity consumption can be reduced from 0.60 kg/（kW·h） to 0.54 kg/（kW·h）; by 2060, the designed substation and distribution capacity can be reduced by 9.57%, and electricity substitution will reduce the carbon emissions by 58 500 t per year. The rebalance method provides a strong theoretical support for the planning of new power systems at receiving ends.

Key words: new power system, source-grid-load-storage, electric power and energy rebalance, load forecasting, electricity substitution, energy storage, low carbon emissions, industrial park

中图分类号:

TK018

孔慧超, 王文钟, 雷一, 彭静, 李海波. 园区受端新型电力系统电力电量再平衡方法[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2024, 46(2): 68-74.

KONG Huichao, WANG Wenzhong, LEI Yi, PENG Jing, LI Haibo. Electric power and energy rebalancing method for new power systems at receiving ends of industrial parks[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2024, 46(2): 68-74.

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年份	电量/(TW·h)	最大负荷/MW	所需变配电容量/ （MV·A）	220 kV变电站提供的10 kV供电容量/（MV·A）	所需110 kV变电容量/（MV·A）
2020	3.532	542.1	1 192.7	155	1 037.7
2021	4.062	614.5	1 351.9	155	1 196.9
2022	4.614	705.5	1 552.2	155	1 397.2
2023	5.177	831.0	1 828.2	155	1 673.2
2024	5.736	927.4	2 040.4	155	1 885.4
2025	6.195	1 015.6	2 234.3	155	2 079.3
2026	6.629	1 094.2	2 407.3	258	2 149.3
2027	7.046	1 165.7	2 564.5	258	2 306.5
2028	7.441	1 234.0	2 714.8	258	2 456.8
2029	7.806	1 297.7	2 854.9	258	2 596.9
2030	8.079	1 346.5	2 962.2	258	2 704.2
2035	9.160	1 526.6	3 358.5	360	2 998.5
2040	10.063	1 677.2	3 689.9	360	3 329.9
2045	10.712	1 785.3	3 927.7	360	3 567.7
2050	11.243	1 873.9	4 122.6	480	3 642.6
2060	12.263	2 043.9	4 496.5	480	4 016.5

年份	光伏		燃气
年份	新增电量/ （GW·h）	新增装机/MW	新增电量/ （GW·h）	新增装机/MW
2021	20	20	0	0
2022	40	40	0	0
2023	60	60	0	0
2024	80	80	100	100
2025	100	100	300	100
2026	120	120	500	100
2027	140	140	700	200
2028	160	160	1 200	200
2029	180	180	1 500	300
2030	200	200	2 000	300
2035	220	220	2 500	400
2040	230	230	2 500	400
2045	240	240	2 500	400
2050	260	260	2 500	400
2055	270	270	2 500	400
2060	280	280	2 500	400

年份	所需电量/（TW·h）	起始最大负荷预测/MW	110 kV及以下配电网						220 kV及以上输电网			最终网供电量/（TW·h）
年份	所需电量/（TW·h）	起始最大负荷预测/MW	新增光伏电量/（GW·h）	新增光伏装机/MW	柔性负荷与储能削峰/MW	所需变电容量/（MV·A）	220 kV变电站提供的10 kV供电容量/（MV·A）	所需110 kV变电容量/（MV·A）	新增燃气电量/（TW·h）	新增燃气装机/MW	输变电负荷缩减幅度/MW	最终网供电量/（TW·h）
2020	3.532	542.1	0	0	32.5	1 121.1	155	966.1	0	0	32.5	3.532
2021	4.021	608.3	20	20	36.5	1 251.5	155	1 096.5	0	0	39.5	4.001
2022	4.568	698.5	40	40	41.9	1 431.3	155	1 276.3	0	0	47.9	4.528
2023	5.125	822.7	60	60	49.4	1 681.5	155	1 526.5	0	0	58.4	5.065
2024	5.679	918.2	80	80	55.1	1 872.4	155	1 717.4	0.1	100	117.1	5.499
2025	6.133	1 005.4	100	100	60.3	2 046.3	155	1 891.3	0.3	100	125.3	5.733
2026	6.496	1 072.3	120	120	64.3	2 178.0	258	1 920.0	0.5	100	132.3	5.876
2027	6.906	1 142.4	140	140	68.5	2 316.2	258	2 058.2	0.7	200	189.5	6.066
2028	7.292	1 209.3	160	160	72.6	2 448.1	258	2 190.1	1.2	200	196.6	5.932
2029	7.650	1 271.7	180	180	76.3	2 570.6	258	2 312.6	1.5	300	253.3	5.970
2030	7.917	1 319.5	200	200	79.2	2 662.8	258	2 404.8	2.0	300	259.2	5.717
2035	8.976	1 496.1	220	220	89.8	3 021.2	360	2 661.2	2.5	400	322.8	6.256
2040	9.761	1 626.9	230	230	97.6	3 288.5	360	2 928.5	2.5	400	332.1	7.031
2045	10.449	1 741.4	240	240	104.5	3 522.1	360	3 162.1	2.5	400	340.5	7.709
2050	11.008	1 834.7	260	260	110.1	3 708.3	480	3 228.3	2.5	400	349.1	8.248
2055	11.552	1 925.3	270	270	115.5	3 892.4	480	3 412.4	2.5	400	356.0	8.782
2060	12.065	2 010.9	280	280	120.7	4 066.1	480	3 586.1	2.5	400	362.7	9.285