华北和东北农宅供暖季实时供热量辨识方法及应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2026.04.004

综合智慧能源 ›› 2026, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (4): 27-34.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2026.04.004

• 综合能源系统分析与评估 • 上一篇下一篇

华北和东北农宅供暖季实时供热量辨识方法及应用

陈玥¹(), 田绅¹^,^*(), 战斌飞²(), 石晓冬³(), 徐伟宸¹(), 胡开永¹()

¹ 天津商业大学天津市制冷技术重点实验室，天津 300134
² 中国建筑科学研究院有限公司，北京 100013
³ 天津新技术产业园区大远东制冷设备工程技术有限公司，天津 300110

收稿日期:2025-01-09 修回日期:2025-02-24 出版日期:2025-06-04
通讯作者: * 田绅（1987），男，副教授，博士，从事高效热泵空调技术方面的研究，tianshen@tjcu.edu.cn。
作者简介:陈玥（2000），女，硕士生，从事高效热泵空调技术方面的研究，chen_yue1223@163.com；
战斌飞（1991），男，高级工程师，博士，从事制冷暖通空调、冷链技术、数据中心冷却等方面的研究，zhanbf@emcso.com；
石晓冬（1989），女，从事冷库工程方面的研究，981729022@qq.com；
徐伟宸（2004），男，从事低温吸附储氢方面的研究，3385303474@qq.com；
胡开永（1987），男，副教授，博士，从事制冷系统智能优化与低碳智慧冷链技术等方面的研究，hky422@tjcu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发项目(2023B02029-1);全国大学生创新创业计划项目(202410069271)

Real-time heat supply identification method and application for rural residences in North and Northeast China during heating season

CHEN Yue¹(), TIAN Shen¹^,^*(), ZHAN Binfei²(), SHI Xiaodong³(), XU Weichen¹(), HU Kaiyong¹()

¹ Tianjin Key Laboratory of Refrigeration Technology， Tianjin University of Commerce， Tianjin 300134， China
² China Academy of Building Research， Beijing 100013， China
³ Tianjin New Technology Industrial Park Great Far East Refrigeration Equipment Engineering Technology Company Limited， Tianjin 300110， China

Received:2025-01-09 Revised:2025-02-24 Published:2025-06-04
Supported by:
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Key Research and Development Project(2023B02029-1);National College Students' Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Project(202410069271)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

寒冷及严寒地区农宅供热系统面临经济与环保的双重挑战，提出一种基于能量守恒定律的农宅实时供热量辨识模型。该模型综合考虑围护结构的瞬时得热量和传热量、室内空气的热量变化及空气渗透负荷等因素。将该模型应用于华北和东北3所农宅，结合非供暖季实测数据校准物理参数，校准后模型对瞬时室内温度的预测误差均方根误差、均偏误差及范围归一化均方根误差分别低于6.45%，3.31%和8.72%。校正后的模型应用于农宅供暖季数据分析表明，东北地区农宅的供热量峰值与华北地区相比差异明显，最大达72.2 W/m²。此外，室内温度降低1 ℃时，东北地区农宅供热量可降低12.45%，华北地区农宅平均降低12.85%，表明预测不同室内温度条件下的实时供热量需求对农宅供热调控具有重要意义。

关键词: 实时供热量, 辨识模型, 热负荷, 农宅, 寒冷及严寒地区

Abstract:

Heating systems in rural residences in cold and extremely cold regions face both economic and environmental challenges. A real-time heat supply identification model for rural residences based on the principle of conservation of energy was proposed. The model comprehensively considered factors such as the instantaneous heat gain and heat transfer of the building envelope， heat variation of indoor air， and air infiltration load. The model was applied to three rural residences in North China and Northeast China， with physical parameters calibrated using measured data from non-heating seasons. After calibration， the model achieved prediction accuracy for instantaneous indoor temperature with a root mean square error， mean bias error， and range normalized root mean square error of below 6.45%，3.31%，and 8.72%， respectively. The calibrated model was used for data analysis of rural residences during heating season. The results showed that the peak heat supply for rural residences in Northeast China differed significantly from that in North China， with a maximum difference of 72.2 W/m². Additionally， a reduction of 1 ℃ in indoor temperature decreased the heat supply by 12.45% for rural residences in Northeast China and by an average of 12.85% in North China. The findings indicate that predicting real-time heat supply under different indoor temperatures is of great significance for effective heating regulation in rural residences.

Key words: real-time heat supply, identification model, heating load, rural residence, cold and extremely cold regions

中图分类号:

TK018

陈玥, 田绅, 战斌飞, 石晓冬, 徐伟宸, 胡开永. 华北和东北农宅供暖季实时供热量辨识方法及应用[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2026, 48(4): 27-34.

CHEN Yue, TIAN Shen, ZHAN Binfei, SHI Xiaodong, XU Weichen, HU Kaiyong. Real-time heat supply identification method and application for rural residences in North and Northeast China during heating season[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2026, 48(4): 27-34.

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室内区域	农宅编号
室内区域	^#1	^#2	^#3
卧室/(m×m)	4.98×3.83	4.26×3.84	3.35×3.50 3.35×3.45 3.35×3.50
客厅/(m×m)	4.98×7.02/2.46×3.83	4.26×3.14	3.35×2.60/3.35×2.60
院子/(m×m)		2.87×9.77
门/(m×m)	1.90×0.80	1.96×1.00	1.90×1.04
窗/（m×m)	1.70×1.00 1.70×1.00 1.70×1.96 1.70×1.96	2.50×1.50 0.80×1.50 1.00×0.50 0.90×1.50 3.50×1.50	1.95×3.00 2.95×0.80 1.05×0.80 2.95×0.80 1.95×3.00 1.95×3.00 1.95×2.50 1.95×3.00

建筑结构	农宅编号
建筑结构	^#1	^#2	^#3
外墙	水泥、砂浆、红砖、水泥、砂浆瓷砖	水泥、砂浆、红砖、水泥、砂浆	水泥、砂浆、红砖、水泥、砂浆
内墙	水泥、砂浆、红砖、水泥、砂浆	水泥、砂浆、红砖、水泥、砂浆	水泥、砂浆、红砖、水泥、砂浆
地基	夯土和混凝土	夯土和混凝土	夯土和混凝土
地面	水泥、砂浆、瓷砖	水泥、砂浆、瓷砖	水泥、砂浆、瓷砖
屋顶	水泥、砂浆、彩钢瓦	水泥、砂浆、瓦片	水泥、砂浆、瓦片
窗户	玻璃	玻璃	玻璃
门	木头	木头、玻璃	木头、玻璃

设备	参数	分辨率	测量范围	精度
室内温度测量仪	温度/℃	0.1	-20.0~60.0	±0.2
多功能气象站	大气温度/℃	0.1	-50.0~80.0	±0.1
多功能气象站	太阳辐照度/ (W·m^-2)	1	0~2 000	<5%
激光测距仪	农宅几何尺寸/m	0.005	0.05~50.00	±0.01

华北和东北农宅供暖季实时供热量辨识方法及应用

Real-time heat supply identification method and application for rural residences in North and Northeast China during heating season

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