Abstract:

The traditional grey prediction model can reflect the general variation trend of the power load only, but it can not reflect the seasonal fluctuation feature of the power load. Based on the monthly adjusting coefficient, the grey cycle combined prediction model was proposed; and a complex monthly power load prediction with consideration of two tends was studied. The calculation example shows that the prediction accuracy of the combined prediction method is better than that of the traditional prediction method.

Key words: power load, grey theory, monthly adjustment coefficient, combined model, prediction accuracy