Prediction for the probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed based on Grey Model

Abstract

Abstract:

On the premise that two parameters of wind speed subject to the Weibull distribution, based on Grey Verhulst Model, a method which is used to predict wind speed distribution parameters is proposed .Firstly, historical wind speed data was measured and fitted monthly. The average wind speed and standard deviation were substituted into the Weibull distribution equation to calculate the annual distribution parameters and the calculated prediction data are tested and analyzed. Then, the prediction data are substituted into Grey Verhulst Model for comparison and analysis. Finally, the wind speed distribution parameters of future years are predicted based on the historical regularity. Numerical results indicate that the Grey Verhulst Model can calculate highly accurate distribution parameters within fewer historical data. This model can provide certain theoretical basis for the wind farm resource assessment.

Key words:

">">wind farm；probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed；Weibull distribution；Grey Verhulst Model

LI Mudan WANG Yinsong LI Yalingb.

Prediction for the probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed based on Grey Model

[J]. Huadian Technology, 2018, 40(1): 1-4.

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Prediction for the probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed based on Grey Model

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