Research on network attack modeling， evolution and response cost of power cyber physical systems

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.05.007

Abstract

Abstract:

With the frequent interactions between the cyber layer and the physical layer， power cyber physical systems （CPSs） are facing great security challenges. Network attacks propagating from the cyber layer to the physical layer may cause the collapse of the entire power system. A new type of network attack propagation model，SI_AI_BR_AR_B，is established based on the double-layer coupling structure of power CPSs and the propagation evolution theory. The model describes the propagation behavior of network attacks in power network nodes. Using dynamic analysis method， we analyze the attack intensity and influence range of a network attack on a power CPS，and provide a specific algorithm to predict the attack intensity. Moreover， the PRCCs and 3D correlation partial differential method are used to analyze the sensitivity of system parameters. The importance of the power CPS network structure and propagation probability to network security have been verified by two simulation tests. Taking the prior case of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited as an example， its typical design and costs are summarized，and the variation of the actual construction cost of the power network security protection system is analyzed. Considering from three perspectives， the construction of a security protection system can be precisely graded， in which the construction costs and CPS security should be considered simultaneously. The theoretical results can provide a reference for power grid defenders to develop new defense schemes under the threat of network attacks.

Key words: power CPS, network attack propagation model, evolution theory, sensitivity analysis, security protection system, cost analysis

CLC Number:

TM73：TK018

YE Fei, ZHONG Xiaojing, GUAN Qianfeng. Research on network attack modeling， evolution and response cost of power cyber physical systems[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2024, 46(5): 58-64.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Fig.2

Table 1

Explanation of model parameters

参数	含义
$A$	单位时间内加入的节点数
$d$	单位时间内移出系统的移除率
$α$	$I i (t) (i = A, B)$ 接触 $S (t)$ 时， $S (t)$ 变成 $I A (t)$ 的概率
$β$	$I i (t) (i = A, B)$ 接触 $S (t)$ 时， $S (t)$ 变成 $I B (t)$ 的概率
$η 1$	$I A (t)$ 接触 $R i (t) (i = A, B)$ 时， $I A (t)$ 变成 $R A (t)$ 的概率
$η 2$	$I B (t)$ 接触 $R i (t) (i = A, B)$ 时， $I B (t)$ 变成 $R B (t)$ 的概率
$k$	同质网络的平均节点度

Table 1

Fig.3

Table 2

Parameters of the system

参数	取值1	取值2
$A$	1	1
$d$	0.01	0.01
$α$	0.030	0.025
$β$	0.010	0.038
$η 1$	0.06	0.03
$η 2$	0.045	0.030
$k$	1.2	1.2

Table 2

Fig.4

Table 3

Table 4

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年份	二次安防设备投资
2012	80
2013	100
2014	85
2015	68
2016	100
2017	128
2018	128
2019	121
2020	123
2021	140

投资	典型造价V1.0 （2012年）	典型造价V2.0 （2016年）	典型造价V3.0 （2022年）
二次安防设备	80	121	362
二次系统	653	431	1 272
整站	11 675	13 483	15 635