Risk analysis and response strategies of grid enterprises' electricity purchasing agent service under electricity reform

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.03.010

Abstract

Abstract:

In view of current power shortage and the deepening of power price marketization， power grid enterprises are advancing electric power user side reform by acting as electricity purchasing agents. Based on agent power purchasing policies， the key information and uncertain factors of this service are analysed. Then， the whole-process risk identification is conducted for the electricity purchasing agent service， and a power purchasing agent whole-process risk index system and a comprehensive risk assessment model for power grid enterprises are constructed， which can comprehensively percept and assess risks during the process. Finally， strategies to reduce the risk in electricity purchasing agent service are proposed for power grid enterprises， providing theoretical guidance for power grid enterprises.

Key words: electricity market, power grid enterprise, time-of-use tariff, electricity purchasing agent service, risk assessment

CLC Number:

TK01：TM73

LI Yangao, LIN Jian, MA Yutong. Risk analysis and response strategies of grid enterprises' electricity purchasing agent service under electricity reform[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2024, 46(3): 79-86.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Judgment matrix of assessment index set X

$X$	$X 1$	$X 2$	$X 3$
$X 1$	1	1/2	1/3
$X 2$	2	1	2/3
$X 3$	3	3/2	1

Table 3

Table 4

Judgment matrix of assessment index subset X1

$X 1$	$X 11$	$X 12$	$X 13$	$X 14$	$X 15$	$X 16$
$X 11$	1	3/5	3/5	1/2	4/5	1/2
$X 12$	5/3	1	1	4/5	5/4	2/3
$X 13$	5/3	1	1	4/5	5/4	5/3
$X 14$	2	5/4	5/4	1	1/2	2/5
$X 15$	5/4	4/5	4/5	2	1	5/3
$X 16$	2	3/2	3/5	5/2	3/5	1

Table 4

Table 5

Judgment matrix of assessment index subset X2

$X 2$	$X 21$	$X 22$	$X 23$	$X 24$	$X 25$	$X 26$
$X 21$	1	3/4	5/6	3/2	2	5/4
$X 22$	4/3	1	3/5	1/2	4/5	1/2
$X 23$	6/5	5/3	1	5/6	2/3	2
$X 24$	2/3	2	6/5	1	4/3	5/6
$X 25$	1/2	5/4	3/2	3/4	1	3/4
$X 26$	4/5	2	1/2	6/5	4/3	1

Table 5

Table 6

Judgment matrix of assessment index subset X3

$X 3$	$X 31$	$X 32$	$X 33$	$X 34$
$X 31$	1	3/4	5/6	3/2
$X 32$	4/3	1	1/2	3/5
$X 33$	6/5	2	1	2/3
$X 34$	2/3	5/3	3/2	1

Table 6

Table 7

Weight vectors of assessment indexes

评价指标	指标子集	权重向量	指标	权重
$X$	$X 1$	0.214 3	$X 11$	0.131 8
			$X 12$	0.187 3
			$X 13$	0.215 1
			$X 14$	0.235 6
			$X 15$	0.157 7
			$X 16$	0.072 5
	$X 2$	0.322 2	$X 21$	0.106 7
			$X 22$	0.135 4
			$X 23$	0.212 4
			$X 24$	0.250 3
			$X 25$	0.191 7
			$X 26$	0.103 5
	$X 3$	0.463 5	$X 31$	0.228 9
			$X 32$	0.281 6
			$X 33$	0.236 1
			$X 34$	0.253 4

Table 7

Fig.2

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目标层	准则层	指标层
代理购电业务全流程风险管理	交易前	供给侧市场竞争风险
		需求侧市场竞争风险
		预测偏差风险
		设备运行风险
		购电策略不完善风险
		电能质量低风险
	交易中	电价波动风险
		供应不足风险
		交易规则变化风险
		供应不良率风险
		串谋、价格打压风险
		用户信息泄露风险
	交易后	违约风险
		欠费风险
		经济周期变化风险
		政策、法律变化风险

评价指标	风险极小	风险较小	风险较大	风险极大
供给侧市场竞争风险	0.05	0.28	0.55	0.12
需求侧市场竞争风险	0.04	0.48	0.46	0.02
预测偏差风险	0.12	0.63	0.22	0.03
设备运行风险	0.03	0.52	0.42	0.03
购电策略不完善风险	0.07	0.50	0.38	0.05
电能质量低风险	0.03	0.36	0.53	0.08
电价波动风险	0.02	0.38	0.54	0.06
供应不足风险	0.10	0.56	0.33	0.01
交易规则变化风险	0.09	0.61	0.29	0.01
供应不良率风险	0.01	0.30	0.53	0.08
串谋、价格打压风险	0.06	0.48	0.42	0.04
用户信息泄露风险	0.02	0.46	0.49	0.03
违约风险	0.04	0.38	0.53	0.05
欠费风险	0.02	0.42	0.50	0.06
经济周期变化风险	0.10	0.51	0.35	0.04
政策、法律变化风险	0.06	0.48	0.43	0.03