Calculation and prediction of carbon emission factors for the national power grid from 2005 to 2035

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.03.009

Abstract

Abstract:

In the view of delayed data updates and inaccurate calculations on the carbon emission factor of the national power grid， a calculation method based on IPCC's carbon emission accounting method is proposed for the factor. IPCC's carbon emission accounting method can be employed on 25 kinds of fuels for power generation. First， carbon emission factors of the national power grid from 2005 to 2022 are obtained by the proposed methods. Then， the calculation results are compared with the official published data with an average deviation of 1.45%， which prove the accuracy of the algorithm. Finally， the emission factors from 2023 to 2035 are predicted under three scenarios， basic scenario， low-carbon scenario， and intensive carbon reduction scenario. In 2035， the emission factor decreased to 0.506 4， 0.480 7，and 0.443 8 kg/（kW·h） under the three scenarios，keeping the carbon emissions from power industry constantly low. As the proposed method has a high accuracy， it can dynamically reflect the current situation and development trend of China's power structure， and provide support for accurate evaluating on carbon emissions from electricity consumers.

Key words: national power grid, carbon emission factor, carbon emissions, renewable energy, scenario prediction, carbon intensity

CLC Number:

TK01：TM7

WEI Xikai, TAN Xiaoshi, LIN Ming, CHENG Junjie, XIANG Keqi, DING Shuxin. Calculation and prediction of carbon emission factors for the national power grid from 2005 to 2035[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2024, 46(3): 72-78.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1

Table 2

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

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能源	折算标准煤系数	标准煤碳排放系数/（t·t^-1）
原煤	0.714 3 t/t	2.64
洗精煤	0.900 0 t/t	2.64
其他洗煤	0.285 7 t/t	2.64
型煤	0.600 0 t/t	2.64
煤矸石	0.285 7 t/t	2.64
焦煤	0.971 4 t/t	2.64
焦炉煤气	6.143 0 t/万m³	2.64
高炉煤气	1.286 0 t/万m³	2.64
转炉煤气	2.714 0 t/万m³	2.64
其他煤气	3.570 1 t/万m³	2.64
其他焦化产品	1.300 0 t/t	2.64
热力	0.034 1 t/GJ	2.64
原油	1.428 6 t/t	2.08
汽油	1.471 4 t/t	2.08
煤油	1.471 4 t/t	2.08
柴油	1.457 1 t/t	2.08
燃料油	1.428 6 t/t	2.08
石脑油	1.500 0 t/t	2.08
石油焦	1.091 8 t/t	2.08
液化石油气	1.200 0 t/t	2.08
炼厂干气	1.714 3 t/t	2.08
其他石油制品	1.571 4 t/t	2.08
天然气	12.143 0 t/万m³	1.63
液化天然气	1.757 2 t/t	1.63
其他能源	—	2.64

年份	碳排放因子
年份	官方公布数据/ [kg·（kW·h）^-1]	本文计算数据/ [kg·（kW·h）^-1]	偏差/%
2015	0.610 1	0.621 5	1.87
2016	0.605 3	0.603 6	0.27
2017	0.600 4	0.595 8	0.76
2018	0.595 6	0.589 1	1.08
2019	0.590 7	0.577 1	2.30
2020	0.585 9	0.567 4	3.14
2021	0.581 0	0.568 8	2.10
2022	0.570 3	0.569 8	0.09