Abstract:

Combining the development status of power plants spot check and actual situation of a thermal power plant, taking the state parameters of generation equipment as research object, a mathematical model based on Gray Theory is established, which can be used for state parameters prediction and evaluation. By introducing mpoint factor, the improved Gray Model can make m point average process on volatile operating parameters sequences of generation equipment, which makes the original data meet the the smoothness requirements of Grey Model. The results show that the improved Gray Model can predict and evaluate the operation status of power plants more accurately and achieve the purpose of processing of spot check data.

Key words:

generation equipment, reliability, Gray Model, condition prediction, spot check