计及双重不确定性的综合能源系统运行优化模型研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2023.10.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

可再生能源的大规模应用是解决温室效应的重要途径，综合能源系统的开发是提高能源利用率的重要方向，但分布式能源出力随机性会引发系统的安全运行。通过对分布式能源不确定性和能源价格不确定性进行分析，并以清洁能源消纳率最大和系统运行成本最低作为系统优化目标，构建了考虑双重不确定性的综合能源系统优化模型。通过选取长三角地区某综合能源系统示范基地进行算例分析，有效验证了提出模型的可行性，为碳中和目标的实现奠定了基础。

关键词: 综合能源系统, 碳中和, 不确定性, 分布式能源, 低碳经济调度

Abstract:

Wide application of renewable energy is effective in alleviate greenhouse gas emissions， and the integrated energy system is an important way to improve its utilization efficiency. However， the randomness of distributed new energy output can lead to unstable operation of the system. Based on the study on the uncertainty of distributed energy outputs and prices，an integrated energy system optimization model considering the two uncertainties above is proposed. And the model takes the highest renewable energy accommodation rate and minimum operating cost as optimization objectives. Finally， the feasibility of the proposed model is verified by an integrated energy system of a demonstrative base located in the Yangzi River Delta， laying the foundation for pursuing carbon neutrality.

Key words: integrated energy system, carbon neutrality, uncertainty, distributed energy, low carbon economic dispatch

中图分类号:

TK01：TM715

喻小宝, 赵雯婧, 孙艺新. 计及双重不确定性的综合能源系统运行优化模型研究[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2023, 45(10): 10-17.

YU Xiaobao, ZHAO Wenjing, SUN Yixin. Integrated energy system operation optimization model considering double uncertainties[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2023, 45(10): 10-17.

图/表 8

图1

表1

式中各参数与释义

参数	释义	参数	释义
$r$	清洁能源消纳率/%	$P W T$	风电消纳功率/kW
$P P V$	光伏消纳功率/kW	$P ¯ W T$	风电预测出力/kW
$P ¯ P V$	光伏预测出力/kW	$T$	最大运行时间/h
$C E$	系统运行总成本/元	$C S$	电系统运行成本/元
$C L$	需求侧管理成本/元	$C H$	热系统运行成本/元
$P g r i d$	外网购电功率/kW	$q g r i d$	电价水平/元
$P S B$	储能充放电功率/kW	$k S B$	储能运维系数
$k W T$	风电运维系数	$k P V$	光伏运维系数
$f M T$	微燃机成本/元	$P M T$	微燃机功率/kW
$f F C$	燃料电池成本/元	$P F C$	燃料电池功率/kW
$c d e l a y 0$	平移负荷固定成本/元	$P d e l a y 0$	可平移负荷功率/kW
$c d e l a y$	转移可变系数	$P d e l a y$	负荷平移功率/kW
$λ d e l a y$	转移电效益损耗系数	$P H$	外网购热功率/kW
$p H$	外系统供热价格/元	$P X$	储能充放热功率/kW
$k X$	蓄能功率运维成本/元	$P G$	购气功率/kW
$C N G$	天然气单价/（元·m^-3）	$α H$	热能系统置信度水平
$C ¯ H$	热系统乐观值	$α G$	气能系统置信度水平
$C ¯ G$	气系统乐观值	$C G$	气系统运行成本/元
$P l o s s$	网损功率/kW	$P ¯ L$	需求管理负荷功率/kW
$P E, G$	热转电的功率/kW	$P E, H$	电转热的功率/kW
$d (j, t)$	负荷平移矩阵元素	$P g r i d m a x$	外购电功率最大值/kW
$R M T$	微燃机额定爬坡率	$R F C$	燃料电池额定爬坡率
$P M T m i n$	微燃机最小出力/kW	$P M T m a x$	微燃机最大出力/kW
$P F C m i n$	燃料电池最小出力/kW	$P F C m a x$	燃料电池最大出力/kW
$P E, G, m a x$	热转电最大功率/kW	$P E, H, m a x$	电转热最大功率/kW
$η d i s$	储能放电效率/%	$S S B$	储能剩余电量/（kW·h）
$S S B m i n$	储能余量最小值/（kW·h）	$η c h$	储能充电功率/kW
$P S B m i n$	储能充放功率下限/kW	$S S B m a x$	储能余量最大值/（kW·h）
$Q S B$	储能容量/（kW·h）	$P S B m a x$	储能充放功率上限/kW
$P E m a x$	最大供电容量/（kW·h）	$P^L, m a x$	电负荷偏差最大值
$P - P V$	光伏实际功率/kW	$P - ¯ P V$	光伏预测功率/kW
$P^P V$	光伏功率偏差/%	$P^P V, m i n$	光伏偏差最小值
$P^P V, m a x$	光伏偏差最大值	$P - W T$	风电实际功率/kW
$P - P V$	光伏实际功率/kW	$P - ¯ P V$	光伏预测功率/kW
$P - ¯ W T$	风电预测功率/kW	$P^W T$	风电功率偏差
$P^W T, m i n$	风电偏差最小值	$P^W T, m a x$	风电偏差最大值
$P - L$	电荷实际功率/kW	$P - ¯ L$	电荷预测功率/kW
$P^L$	电负荷功率偏差	$P^L, m i n$	电负荷偏差最小值
$P^L, m a x$	电负荷偏差最大值	$C h e$	吸收制热的制热系数
$P L H$	热负荷功率/kW	$P H m a x$	购热的最大功率/kW
$λ x$	热量自损失系数	$P m i n$	充放热功率最小值/kW
$P m a x$	充放热功率最大值/（kW·h）	$X m i n$	蓄热装置余热下限
$X m a x$	蓄热装置余热上限/（kW·h）	$P H m i n$	购热的最小功率/kW
$P H m a x$	购热的最大功率/kW	$P g s$	储气罐气体释放功率/kW
$P E, G$	气转电的功率/kW	$P L, G$	天然气负荷功率/kW
$P r s$	储气罐余量功率/kW	$P r s m a x$	储气余量功率上限/（kW·h）
$P r s m i n$	储气余量功率下限/（kW·h）	$P g s m a x$	储气释放功率上限/（kW·h）
$P g s m i n$	储气释放功率下限/（kW·h）	$P r {}$	事件发生的概率
$P i n m i n$	购气的最小功率/kW	$ξ$	随机变量
$u$	控制变量	$m$	不确定约束条件个数
$f (u, ξ)$	模型的目标	$n$	确定性约束条件个数
$β j$	置信度	$β H /$ $β G$	确定性约束条件个数热能/气能置信度
$f -$	乐观值	$P i n m a x$	购气的最大功率/kW
$δ$	不平衡功率偏差

表1

图2

图3

图4

表2

图5

图6

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参数	取值
储能充电效率/%	94
储能放电效率/%	95
储能自放电系数	0.011
储能最大容量/(kW·h)	1 000
自损失系数	0.09
储气罐最大容量/m³	400
补偿系数	2.85