基于模型预测的地热-燃气互补供暖系统智慧调度控制

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2023.12.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，地热供暖逐步开始应用于大规模北方城镇集中供暖。由于地热供暖具有不确定性和波动性，协调优化地热能热源与化石能源主热源二者间的出力关系是保证系统安全可靠、高效低碳运行的关键。针对雄安新区地热-燃气互补复杂供暖系统的现状，提出了基于模型预测的供暖系统调度控制方法，利用多层感知器对热用户负荷进行预测，建立地热能供暖能力预测模型，对系统供暖期不同阶段的运行提出地热-燃气互补调控策略。系统试运行表明，该调度控制方法在用户热负荷波动幅度为15%时仍能有效保障复杂供暖系统稳定运行，实现地热能与燃气锅炉互补高效供暖，提高了供暖系统的灵活性和经济性。

关键词: 地热供暖, 地热-燃气互补, 低碳清洁供暖, 多层感知器, 负荷预测, 智慧供热：“双碳”目标

Abstract:

In recent years， geothermal heating technology has been doing applied to large-scale central heating for cities in northern China. However， due to the uncertainty and volatility of geothermal heating technology， coordinating and optimizing the outputs of the geothermal heat sources and fossil energy sources is the key to the safe， reliable， efficient and low-carbon operation of the whole heating system. In view of complexity of the heating system for Xiong'an New District geothermal-gas complementary heating system， an intelligent scheduling and control method based on model prediction for this heating system is proposed. Prediction on heat load is made based on the multi-layer perceptron （MLP）， and geothermal heating capacity prediction model is established， in order to provide complementary scheduling and control strategy for a geothermal-gas heating system in different heating stages. The trial operation of the system shows that the scheduling and control method can effectively guarantee the stable operation of the complex heating system with a users' heating load fluctuation under 15%. The strategy realizes the efficient complementary operation between geothermal sources and gas-fired boilers， and improves the flexibility and economy of the heating system.

Key words: geothermal heating, geothermal-gas complementarity, low-carbon heating, multi-layer perceptron, load forecasting, intelligent heating, "dual carbon" target

中图分类号:

TK529：TK019

钟崴, 薄其明, 蔡晨钰, 路诗梦, 李曼洁. 基于模型预测的地热-燃气互补供暖系统智慧调度控制[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2023, 45(12): 29-35.

ZHONG Wei, BO Qiming, CAI Chenyu, LU Shimeng, LI Manjie. Intelligent scheduling and control of a geothermal-gas complementary heating system based on model prediction[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2023, 45(12): 29-35.

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热力站编号	供热量
热力站编号	2023-01-23	2023-02-23
1	547	290
2	1 291	0
3	171	11
4	272	311
5	508	271