针对气象敏感型综合能源负荷的收敛交叉映射因果关系分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2023.01.003

综合智慧能源 ›› 2023, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 23-30.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2023.01.003

针对气象敏感型综合能源负荷的收敛交叉映射因果关系分析

金立^a^,^b(), 张力^a^,^c^,^*(), 任炬光^a^,^c, 唐杨^a^,^b, 唐侨^a^,^c, 刘小兵^a^,^b

a.流体及动力机械教育部重点实验室，西华大学，成都 610039
b.能源与动力工程学院，西华大学，成都 610039
c.电气与电子信息学院，西华大学，成都 610039

收稿日期:2022-09-25 修回日期:2023-01-05 出版日期:2023-01-25 发布日期:2023-02-22
通讯作者: *张力（1982），男，副教授，硕士生导师，硕士，从事综合能源系统规划与运行优化等方面的研究，zhangl@mail.xhu.edu.cn。
作者简介:金立（1998），男，在读硕士研究生，从事综合能源负荷特性、负荷预测等方面的研究，jinli@stu.xhu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB0905200)

Causality analysis of climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system based on convergence cross mapping

JIN Li^a^,^b(), ZHANG Li^a^,^c^,^*(), REN Juguang^a^,^c, TANG Yang^a^,^b, TANG Qiao^a^,^c, LIU Xiaobing^a^,^b

a. Key Laboratory of Fluid and Power Machinery， Ministry of Education， Xihua University， Chengdu 610039， China
b. School of Energy and Power Engineering， Xihua University， Chengdu 610039， China
c. School of Electrical Engineering and Electronic Information， Xihua University， Chengdu 610039， China

Received:2022-09-25 Revised:2023-01-05 Online:2023-01-25 Published:2023-02-22
Supported by:
National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFB0905200)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气象敏感型综合能源负荷是随气候条件变化而波动明显的电、冷、热等多元负荷，具有较强的随机性、不确定性与耦合转化关系，现有的负荷特性分析方法难以精准量化评估气象因素对其的影响。选取实际的综合能源系统为分析对象，基于负荷特性分析，建立了包含多种单一和综合气象因素的关联指标体系，通过基于滑窗法的强关联时段提取、基于收敛交叉映射方法的因果关系强度及敏感度计算构建了因果关系模型与分析流程，结合算例仿真对所提模型进行了验证。结果表明，所提方法能够准确衡量气象因素对多元负荷的影响，可为后续开展能源系统规划与负荷预测研究提供参考。

关键词: 综合能源系统, 气象敏感型综合能源负荷, 因果关系分析, 收敛交叉映射, 滑窗法, 敏感度, 负荷预测

Abstract:

Climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system （CSLs-IES） refer to the electric， cold， heat and other multiple loads that are significantly affected by climate conditions. The loads are of strong randomness， uncertainty and coupling transformation relationships，and their characteristic impacted by climate factors are difficult to be quantified accurately by existing analysis methods. Taking an integrated energy system as the study object， its load characteristics are analysed. Starting from establishing an index system considering a single or multiple meteorological elements， the strong correlation periods are extracted by sliding window method， then the causality analysis model and calculation process are constructed based on the causality strength and sensitivity calculated by convergent cross mapping （CCM）.The proposed model is verified by a case and its results show that the proposed method can effectively identify the impact level of meteorological elements on multiple loads， which is important for the further research on energy system planning and load forecasting.

Key words: integrated intelligent energy system, climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system （CSLs-IES）, causality analysis, convergent cross mapping, sliding window, sensitivity coefficient, load forecasting

中图分类号:

TK01：TM714

金立, 张力, 任炬光, 唐杨, 唐侨, 刘小兵. 针对气象敏感型综合能源负荷的收敛交叉映射因果关系分析[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2023, 45(1): 23-30.

JIN Li, ZHANG Li, REN Juguang, TANG Yang, TANG Qiao, LIU Xiaobing. Causality analysis of climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system based on convergence cross mapping[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2023, 45(1): 23-30.

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气象因素	与电负荷的因果关系强度	与冷负荷的因果关系强度
风速	0.43	0.40
湿度	0.23	0.41
温度	0.73	0.79
压强	0.42	0.33
露点	0.21	0.44
实感温度	0.78	0.80
温湿指数	0.67	0.72
人体舒适度	0.72	0.76

气象因素	电负荷敏感度	冷负荷敏感度
温度	0.68	0.84
实感温度	1.23	1.50
温湿指数	3.24	3.32
人体舒适度	1.30	1.32

针对气象敏感型综合能源负荷的收敛交叉映射因果关系分析

Causality analysis of climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system based on convergence cross mapping

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