基于场景扩充的低碳综合能源系统高可靠性容量规划方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.04.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为应对全球极端天气的增多以及低碳供能的迫切需求，协同本地多种供能资源的综合能源系统（IES）被认为是提高能源效率和减少碳排放的有效范式。由于IES中风、光等可再生能源出力和冷、热、电多元供能需求的不确定性以及碳排放的限制，提出了一种综合考虑系统经济成本、本地供能可靠性和碳排放成本的IES容量规划优化方法，该方法结合数据驱动的去噪扩散模型对IES运行场景进行扩充，提升了优化模型在不确定条件下求解的可靠性。实际案例数据的仿真结果表明，与传统的规划方法相比，所提出规划方案的运行成本降低了34.5%，碳排放减少了39.4%。

关键词: 综合能源系统, 多目标优化, 去噪扩散模型, 场景扩充, 数据驱动模型, 低碳供能

Abstract:

In the context of addressing frequent extreme weather around the world and urgent needs for low-carbon energy supply， an integrated energy system （IES） that can couple multiple local energy sources is considered to be an effective paradigm for improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions. Due to the limit of carbon emissions，the uncertain outputs of various renewable energy sources in an IES ，and unstable demands on cold， heat and electricity， an optimal capacity planning method aiming at optimizing the economic cost， local energy supply reliability and carbon emission cost of the IES is proposed. The planning method can expand the IES operation scenarios with the help of data-driven denoising diffusion model. It improves the reliability of the optimization model under uncertain conditions. Based on the simulation experiment on actual case data， the results show that compared with the traditional planning method， the proposed planning method reduces the operating cost by 34.5%， and reduces the carbon emission by 39.4%.

Key words: integrated energy system, multi-objective optimization, denoising diffusion probabilistic model, scenario generation, data-driven model, low-carbon energy supply

中图分类号:

TK01

陈勇, 肖雷鸣, 王井南, 吴健. 基于场景扩充的低碳综合能源系统高可靠性容量规划方法[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2024, 46(4): 24-33.

CHEN Yong, XIAO Leiming, WANG Jingnan, WU Jian. Capacity planning method with high reliability for integrated energy systems with low-carbon emissions based on scenario expansion[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2024, 46(4): 24-33.

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恒定参数	数值
电网发电的碳排放强度/[kg·（kW·h）^-1]	0.354
天然气的碳排放强度/(kg·m^-3)	2.165
天然气燃烧的低热值/(kJ·m^-3)	38 931
碳排放惩罚/（元·t^-1)	1 800
最大的年碳排放额度/t	1 100
允许的年碳排放配额/t	600

设备	S_OC，min	S_OC，max	充/放效率
ESS	0.15	0.85	0.90/0.90
TES	0.20	0.80	0.88/0.88

时间	价格
07:00 —11:00, 18:00 —20:00	0.86
11:00 —18:00, 20:00 —23:00	1.38
00:00 —06:00, 23:00 —次日00:00	0.37

设备	运行成本/ （元·kW^-1）	效率	容量限制/kW	使用寿命/a
WT	4 500	—	0~550	20
PV	3 850	—	0~550	20
GB	3 700	0.85	0~500	15
CHP机组	4 500	—	0~400	15
APC	2 700	0.90	0~400	15
AC	1 500	4.50	0~200	15
TES	1 600	0.90	0~300	10
ESS	3 000	0.90	0~300	5

样本来源	期望	方差	偏度	峰度
实际数据	252.34	180.00	0.39	2.58
DDPM生成数据	252.84	179.34	0.36	2.55