基于STIRPAT模型的吉林省石化行业碳排放影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.08.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

石化行业作为典型的高碳排产业，研究其碳排放规律及影响有助于我国“双碳”目标的实现。以吉林省2002—2021年石化行业中5个子行业的原煤、洗精煤、焦炭、汽油、柴油、原油等9类碳排放源数据为基础，研究吉林省石化行业碳排放的时间演变特征及碳排放结构。采用扩展的随机性环境影响评估（STIRPAT）模型以及岭回归参数估计方法，选取经济增加值等6个指标，深入探讨各因素对吉林省石化行业碳排放量的作用机制及影响。根据实证分析结果，为推进吉林省石化行业低碳发展，促进石化产业碳减排，提出3个建议：提升能源效率，改善能源消费结构；优化投资项目，推动低碳项目发展；采取循环经济，进行环境影响评估。

关键词: “双碳”目标, 石化行业, 能源结构, 碳排放, STIRPAT模型, 能源效率, 能源消费结构, 循环经济

Abstract:

In view that petrochemical industry is a typical industry of high carbon emissions， studying the variation law and influencing factors of its carbon emissions can facilitate the implement of China's "dual carbon" strategy. Based on the data from the nine carbon emission sources which include raw coal， clean coal， coke， gasoline， diesel and crude oil in five sub industries of petrochemical industry in Jilin Province from 2002 to 2021， the temporal evolution characteristics and composition of the carbon emissions are studied. Six indicators affecting the carbon emissions from petrochemical industry in Jilin Province， including economic value added， are selected， and their impacts and mechanisms are deeply studied based on the expanded STIRPAT model and ridge regression parameter estimation. According to empirical analysis results， three suggestions are proposed to promote the low-carbon development and carbon reduction of petrochemical industry in Jilin Province： improving energy efficiency and energy consumption structure； selecting valuable investment projects and low-carbon projects； adopting circular economy and conducting environmental impact assessments.

Key words: "dual carbon" strategy, petrochemical industry, energy mix, carbon emissions, STIRPAT model, energy efficiency, composition of energy consumption, cyclic economy

中图分类号:

TK01

李菲菲, 徐绘薇, 崔金栋. 基于STIRPAT模型的吉林省石化行业碳排放影响因素研究[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2024, 46(8): 12-19.

LI Feifei, XU Huiwei, CUI Jindong. Research on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from petrochemical industry in Jilin Province based on the STIRPAT model[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2024, 46(8): 12-19.

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年份	C/万t	A_V/亿元	I_E	R	F/亿元	I_CI/（万元·t^-1）	L/(万元·人^-1)
2002	1 135.98	28.80	69.11	0.02	10.60	0.01	2.98
2003	1 362.78	6.59	306.02	0.02	15.86	0.01	3.15
2004	1 487.29	75.01	27.41	0.02	46.15	0.03	3.23
2005	1 273.19	84.69	24.74	0.03	60.34	0.05	3.54
2006	1 327.98	84.58	25.66	0.03	75.65	0.06	3.81
2007	1 295.69	350.68	6.13	0.03	100.65	0.08	5.16
2008	1 251.97	219.71	9.35	0.03	127.84	0.10	5.86
2009	1 246.10	230.24	8.95	0.03	148.94	0.12	6.51
2010	1 356.73	324.58	6.96	0.03	170.42	0.13	7.72
2011	1 585.90	346.38	7.54	0.03	214.00	0.13	8.00
2012	1 436.63	273.67	8.72	0.04	253.34	0.18	9.41
2013	1 349.47	203.08	11.23	0.05	303.21	0.22	10.68
2014	1 417.13	212.27	11.20	0.04	330.10	0.23	12.08
2015	1 245.27	25.69	82.52	0.04	328.87	0.26	12.82
2016	2 161.83	57.51	71.82	0.02	320.98	0.15	13.79
2017	2 227.61	87.03	49.34	0.02	316.70	0.14	14.96
2018	1 785.93	51.92	71.23	0.02	337.96	0.19	16.02
2019	1 129.54	60.65	41.73	0.03	355.11	0.31	17.24
2020	1 132.05	153.38	12.85	0.04	341.01	0.30	19.03
2021	2 075.58	338.30	12.34	0.02	388.35	0.19	21.19

变量	lnC	lnA_V	lnI_E	lnR	lnF	lnI_CI	lnL
lnC	1.000
lnA_V	0.081	1.000
lnI_E	0.148	-0.969	1.000
lnR	-0.652	0.336	-0.488	1.000
lnF	0.371	0.495	-0.358	0.222	1.000
lnI_CI	0.184	0.507	-0.410	0.371	0.981	1.000
lnL	0.405	0.273	-0.114	0.075	0.910	0.879	1.000

项目	未标准化系数		标准化系数	t值	显著性	共线性统计
项目	B	标准错误	β	t值	显著性	容差	VIF值
常量	6.673×10^-5	0		0.814	0.430
lnA_V	4.469×10^-5	0	0.000	1.484	0.162	0.002	407.525
lnI_E	4.026×10^-5	0	0.000	1.331	0.206	0.002	421.436
lnR	-7.052×10^-6	0	0.000	-0.521	0.611	0.163	6.135
lnF	1.000	0	5.074	40 644.538	0.000	0.004	269.864
lnI_CI	-1.000	0	-4.793	-39 760.413	0.000	0.004	251.707
lnL	1.391×10^-6	0	0.000	0.159	0.876	0.077	13.059

项目	非标准化系数		标准化系数	t	p	VIF值
项目	B	标准错误	β	t	p	VIF值
常数	3.175	0.467	-	6.798	0.000^*
lnA_V	0.151	0.035	0.767	4.319	0.001^*	2.802
lnI_E	0.135	0.035	0.696	3.844	0.002^*	2.915
lnR	-0.342	0.095	-0.475	-3.618	0.003^*	1.534
lnF	0.251	0.048	1.273	5.225	0.000^*	5.273
lnI_CI	-0.208	0.052	-0.996	-3.986	0.002^*	5.542
lnL	0.009	0.077	0.027	0.112	0.913	5.231
R²	0.854
调整R²	0.786
F，p	F(6,13)=12.634, p=0.000

项目	平方和	自由度	均方	F值	p 值
回归	0.703	6	0.117	12.634	0.000
残差	0.121	13	0.009
总计	0.824	19