用于市场准入条件判定的建筑需求响应潜力量化方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2025.03.002

综合智慧能源 ›› 2025, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 15-22.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2025.03.002

用于市场准入条件判定的建筑需求响应潜力量化方法

邸亮¹(), 董杰¹(), 闫馨月¹(), 甄成²(), 田喆²^,^*(), 牛纪德²()

1.龙源（北京）新能源工程设计研究院有限公司，北京 100034
2.天津大学环境科学与工程学院，天津 300350

收稿日期:2024-05-06 修回日期:2024-08-01 接受日期:2024-12-27 出版日期:2025-03-25
通讯作者: *田喆（1975），教授，博士，从事综合能源系统运行优化方面的工作，tianzhe@tju.edu.cn。
作者简介:邸亮（1980），男，高级工程师，从事新能源应用与需求响应方面的工作，9812715@qq.com；
董杰（1977），男，硕士，从事新能源应用方案优化方面的工作，20060350@ceic.com；
闫馨月（1995），女，硕士，从事新能源应用方案优化方面的工作，12032042@ceic.com；
甄成（1997），男，硕士，从事综合能源运行优化与需求响应潜力量化方面的工作，zhencheng@tju.edu.cn
牛纪德（1990），男，副研究员，博士，从事综合能源运行优化与需求响应潜力量化方面的工作，niujide@tju.edu.cn。
基金资助:
天津市重点研发计划项目(22YFZCSN00180)

Quantifying method for buildings' demand response potential applied to market access condition determination

DI Liang¹(), DONG Jie¹(), YAN Xinyue¹(), ZHEN Cheng²(), TIAN Zhe²^,^*(), NIU Jide²()

1. Longyuan （Beijing） Alternative Energy Engineering Design and Research Institute Company Limited，Beijing 100034，China
2. School of Environmental Science and Engineering，Tianjin University，Tianjin 300350，China

Received:2024-05-06 Revised:2024-08-01 Accepted:2024-12-27 Published:2025-03-25
Supported by:
Key R&D Program of Tianjin(22YFZCSN00180)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

建筑是电力需求响应的重要潜在资源，而当前建筑需求响应数据匮乏，且建筑物理结构、围护结构、用能行为特征多样以及气象条件复杂等特点使电网难以精准而快速地判断其需求响应潜力，阻碍了需求响应市场的发展。传统潜力量化方法多适用于单一建筑，无法支撑电力市场对多样化的潜在用户进行准入条件判定，难以筛选目标用户并对申报信息的可靠性进行审查。为了解决上述问题，提出一种基于数据驱动的建筑需求响应潜力快速量化方法。考虑建筑响应潜力影响因素与市场对申报信息的要求设置输入、输出变量；采用EnergyPlus-JEPlus-Eppy的工具链条生成完备数据集，提升模型泛化能力；以数据驱动建模方式开发潜力量化模型，实现需求响应潜力的快速量化。以南京某典型办公建筑为对象，选择全局温度调节为削峰手段验证方法的有效性，算例结果显示所开发潜力量化模型均方误差为0.009 6，决定系数（R²）高于0.9。该方法面对不同建筑以及需求响应场景均能实现准确潜力量化。

关键词: 需求响应, 电力市场, 潜力量化, 数据驱动, 灵活性负荷, “双碳”目标

Abstract:

Buildings are important potential resources for electricity demand response （DR）.But the features of the power grid including lack of demand response data， diversity of physical structures and building envelopes， and complexity of consumption behaviors and meteorological conditions make it difficult to accurately and quickly calculate the DR potential of buildings，hindering the development of the DR market. Most traditional potential quantification methods are applicable to a single building. They can hardly support the judgement on the market access conditions of diverse potential users， or select the qualified target users with a review on the reliability of the declared information. To solve the problems above， a data-driven method based on the quantification of buildings' DR potential is proposed. Firstly， the input and output variables are set by considering the factors influencing the building DR potential and the requirements for the declared information. Then， the tool chain called EnergyPlus-JEPlus-Eppy is used to generate a complete dataset， improving the model generalization. Finally， a data-driven modelling approach is used to develop a potential quantification model to achieve rapid quantification of DR potential. The effectiveness of the method is verified by a typical office building in Nanjing by choosing global temperature regulation as the peak-shaving means. The results of the case show that the proposed model can keep the mean squared error （MSE） of the predicted potential within 0.009 6 with a coefficient of determination（R²） higher than 0.9. The method enables accurate quantification on DR potential for different buildings in various scenarios.

Key words: demand response, electricity market, potential quantification, data-driven, flexibility load, "dual carbon" goal

中图分类号:

TK018

邸亮, 董杰, 闫馨月, 甄成, 田喆, 牛纪德. 用于市场准入条件判定的建筑需求响应潜力量化方法[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2025, 47(3): 15-22.

DI Liang, DONG Jie, YAN Xinyue, ZHEN Cheng, TIAN Zhe, NIU Jide. Quantifying method for buildings' demand response potential applied to market access condition determination[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2025, 47(3): 15-22.

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地区	单次响应能力/kW			最低响应时长/h
地区	直接参与工业	直接参与非工业	负荷聚合商	最低响应时长/h
浙江^[17]			≥1 000	0.5
山东^[7]	≥1 000	≥ 400
天津^[18]	≥500	≥100	≥1 000	0.5
贵州^[19]	≥100		≥1 000	1.0
云南^[20]	≥1 000	≥1 000	≥2 500

输入变量		取值范围
物理结构	宽度/m	25~100
	长宽比	1~2
	高度/m	15~100
围护结构	窗墙比	0.2~0.8
	围护结构总传热系数/[W·(m²·K)^-1]	3~35
	外墙蓄热系数/[W·(m²·K)^-1]	5~15
	屋面蓄热系数/[W·(m²·K)^-1]	5~15
用能行为	人员密度/（m²·人^-1)	7~13（整数）
	照明密度/（W·m^-2)	6.3~11.7
	设备密度/（W·m^-2)	10.5~19.5
	内扰水平	高，低
需求响应	温度上调大小/℃	1.0,1.5,2.0
	开始时间	12：00 —15：00
	持续时间/h	1,2

用于市场准入条件判定的建筑需求响应潜力量化方法

Quantifying method for buildings' demand response potential applied to market access condition determination

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