考虑多重不确定性的电-热-气综合能源系统协同优化方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2024.04.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

综合能源系统（IES）中风-光出力和负荷不确定性对系统的运行安全和规划提出了挑战。以包含光伏、生物质气化热电联产等设备的IES调度过程为例，提出一种集成随机规划-信息间隙决策理论（IGDT）的方法应对系统优化运行过程中源-荷侧的多重不确定性。随机规划方法处理光伏出力不确定性，并将优化结果作为IGDT处理负荷不确定性的基准值。其中，IGDT中的风险规避和风险寻求策略反映了系统管理者面对不确定性带来运行风险时的态度。结果表明，风险规避策略下生物质气化热电联产日电能输出总量高于风险寻求策略下生物质气化热电联产日电能输出总量的50%。不同策略下的调度结果差异性为系统管理者提供了灵活的选择。

关键词: 综合能源系统, 多重不确定性, 信息间隙决策理论, 随机规划, 生物质气化热电联产

Abstract:

The uncertainties of wind outputs， solar outputs and loads of integrated energy systems（IES） challenge IES operational safety and planning. To address this issue， an IES integrating photovoltaics（PV） units and a biomass gasification combined heating and power（BCHP） unit is studied. A scheduling method based on integrated stochastic programming and information gap decision theory（IGDT） is proposed to eliminate the uncertainties on the source side and user side of the IES during its collaborative optimization. Stochastic programming can deal with the short-term uncertainty of PV outputs， and its optimization results are taken as the benchmark of load uncertainty optimization by IGDT.While resisting the operational risks triggered by the uncertainties in IGDT optimization， the IES managers tend to choose two strategies， risk-aversion strategy and risk-taking strategy. The test results on the case demonstrate that the daily power output of the BCHP unit under risk-aversion strategy is 50% higher under that under risk-taking strategy. Different dispatching results under different strategies give system managers flexible choices.

Key words: integrated energy systems, multiple uncertainties, information gap decision theory, stochastic programming, biomass gasification combined heat and power

中图分类号:

TK01：TM715

王京龙, 王晖, 杨野, 郑颖颖. 考虑多重不确定性的电-热-气综合能源系统协同优化方法[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2024, 46(4): 42-51.

WANG Jinglong, WANG Hui, YANG Ye, ZHENG Yingying. Collaborative optimization method for power-heat-gas integrated energy systems considering multiple uncertainties[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2024, 46(4): 42-51.

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场景	综合成本	能源网互联成本	碳排放成本	系统内部成本
1	3 552.0	315.0	732.9	2 504.1
2	3 788.0	322.0	815.4	2 650.6
3	4 049.0	367.0	904.2	2 777.8
4	3 352.0	322.0	658.5	2 371.5
5	3 204.0	322.0	605.1	2 276.9