“双碳”目标下能源电力行业的机遇与挑战

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-1951.2021.06.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“双碳”目标升级为国家战略,电力行业作为实现“双碳”目标的重要领域,其低碳发展对我国实现“双碳”目标起着至关重要的作用。基于“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的定义与发展要求,结合我国能源结构现状以及实现“碳中和”的4个主要路径,包括电力生产清洁低碳化,发展氢能源、碳捕捉技术,以及推动交通的电动化、氢能化,对实现“双碳”目标下能源电力行业面临的碳交易市场、储能、不同行业转型路径等机遇与挑战进行了分析研究,为未来能源电力行业更好地实现“双碳”目标提供参考。

关键词: 碳中和, 碳达峰, 能源电力, 碳减排, 低碳经济, 固碳, 氢能源, 碳捕集, 可再生能源消纳

Abstract:

The goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak has been upgraded to a national strategy.As an important field of the goal,the follow-up development of power industry plays a vital role in achieving carbon neutrality and carbon peak in China.Based on the definition and development requirements of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,under the current situation of China's energy structure and carbon emissions,there are four main paths to achieve carbon neutrality which include clean and low-carbon power production,application of hydrogen energy,development of carbon capture technology and promotion of the utilization of electricity and hydrogen energy in transportation industry.With the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak,energy and power industry faces opportunities and challenges in three aspects,carbon trading market,energy storage and industrial transformation between different industries.Analyzing these challenges provides a reference for the energy and power industry to adapt to the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak.

Key words: carbon neutrality, carbon peak, electric energy, carbon emission, low-carbon economy, carbon sequestration, hydrogen energy, carbon capture, renewable energy consumption

中图分类号:

TM732：TK-9

喻小宝, 郑丹丹, 杨康, 孔杰, 章天浩. “双碳”目标下能源电力行业的机遇与挑战[J]. 华电技术, 2021, 43(6): 21-32.

YU Xiaobao, ZHENG Dandan, YANG Kang, KONG Jie, ZHANG Tianhao. Opportunities and challenges faced by energy and power industry with the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak[J]. Huadian Technology, 2021, 43(6): 21-32.

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行业	可持续需求	低碳发电	电气化	燃料转换	碳封存
农、林、牧、渔业	√				√
采矿业	√	√	√	√	√
制造业	√	√	√	√
电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业		√			√
建筑业	√	√	√	√
交通运输、仓储和邮政业	√		√	√

年份	一次能源消耗标准煤/亿t	平均发电煤耗/ [g·（kW·h）^-1]	折算电力需求/ (TW·h)	非化石能源占比/%	非化石电力需求/(TW·h)	水电发电量/(TW·h)	核电发电量/(TW·h)	生物质发电量/(TW·h)	风光发电量需求/(TW·h)	风光实际发电量/ (TW·h)	风光实际发电量占比/%
2015	42.99	315.4	13 630.3	12.10	1 649.3	1 112.7	171.4	52.7	312.5	223.3	3.98
2016	43.58	312.1	13 963.5	13.50	1 885.1	1 174.8	213.2	64.7	432.4	308.9	5.16
2017	44.85	309.4	14 495.8	13.80	2 000.4	1 194.7	248.1	79.4	478.2	421.0	6.56
2018	46.40	307.6	15 084.5	14.30	2 157.1	1 232.1	295.0	90.6	539.4	543.5	7.77
2019	48.60	306.9	15 835.8	15.30	2 422.9	1 301.9	348.7	111.1	661.2	630.0	8.60
2025E	54.50	295.0	18 458.3	20.00	3 691.7	1 615.0	542.8	169.2	1 364.6
				21.00	3 876.2				1 549.2
				22.00	4 060.8				1 733.8
2030E	59.60	285.5	20 890.2	25.00	5 222.6	1 720.2	764.2	205.9	2 532.3
				26.00	5 431.5				2 741.2
				27.00	5 640.4				2 950.1