工业-民用耦合能源系统不确定运行条件适应能力研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2025.10.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

综合利用工业余热及能源副产物为周边建筑供能，是能源梯级综合利用的重要手段。但工业生产计划和建筑用能相对独立，分别由不同的因素主导，在常规源荷不确定性之外又引入了新的不确定因素，系统设计决策的边界条件更为复杂。以上海某工业园区工业-民用耦合能源系统为例，设定了逐年气象、入住率及能源价格等典型不确定运行条件，选取4种典型的系统配置方案，量化综合供能系统对不确定运行条件的适应性。计算结果表明，配置总装机容量10%∼20%的燃料电池冷热电联供设备，可以明显提升系统的适应能力，多变场景下运行时的经济性优于全电热泵系统。

关键词: 工业-民用耦合能源系统, 工业余热, 不确定性, 气象条件, 入住率, 能源价格, 燃料电池, 冷热电联供, 热泵

Abstract:

The comprehensive utilization of industrial waste heat and energy by-products to supply energy for surrounding buildings is an important means of integrated cascade utilization of energy. However， industrial production schedules and building energy consumption are relatively independent， each dominated by different factors. This introduces new uncertainties beyond conventional source-load variations， making the boundary conditions for system design decisions even more complex. Taking an industrial-civil coupled energy system in an industrial park in Shanghai as a case study， typical uncertain operating conditions—including year-by-year meteorological variations， occupancy rates， and energy prices—were defined. Four typical system configuration schemes were selected to quantify the adaptability of the integrated energy supply system to these uncertainties. The calculation results showed that configuring fuel cell combined cooling， heating， and power equipment at 10%—20% of the total installed capacity could significantly enhance system adaptability， and its economic performance under variable scenarios was superior to that of all-electric heat pump systems.

Key words: industrial-civil coupled energy system, industrial waste heat, uncertainty, meteorological conditions, occupancy rate, energy price, fuel cell, combined cooling， heating， and power, heat pump

中图分类号:

TK01

黄子硕, 窦真兰, 陈佳盈. 工业-民用耦合能源系统不确定运行条件适应能力研究[J]. 综合智慧能源, 2025, 47(10): 69-76.

HUANG Zishuo, DOU Zhenlan, CHEN Jiaying. Adaptability of industrial-civil coupled energy systems under uncertain operating conditions[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2025, 47(10): 69-76.

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剩余不确定性	状态	特点	分析方法
第1层次	情景清晰明确	可进行单一性预测	量化模型模拟分析决策工具
第2层次	有几种高度可能的情景	有限的、离散的情景	定性分析、定量评估、博弈论
第3层次	情景在一定范围内变化	未来情景在一定范围内变化，没有离散的情景	区间规划模型、概率模型
第4层次	情景模糊不清	无法预测未来情景，时间短暂	类比和类型确认、场景遍历、模糊决策

方案	地源热泵/MW	燃料电池系统/MW	氢、燃气锅炉/MW	水冷冷水机组/MW	投资回收期/a
1	3.88				9.22
2	1.90	0.21		1.76	9.16
3	1.69	0.42		1.76	9.89
4			2.11	3.88	7.74