Causality analysis of climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system based on convergence cross mapping

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2023.01.003

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system （CSLs-IES） refer to the electric， cold， heat and other multiple loads that are significantly affected by climate conditions. The loads are of strong randomness， uncertainty and coupling transformation relationships，and their characteristic impacted by climate factors are difficult to be quantified accurately by existing analysis methods. Taking an integrated energy system as the study object， its load characteristics are analysed. Starting from establishing an index system considering a single or multiple meteorological elements， the strong correlation periods are extracted by sliding window method， then the causality analysis model and calculation process are constructed based on the causality strength and sensitivity calculated by convergent cross mapping （CCM）.The proposed model is verified by a case and its results show that the proposed method can effectively identify the impact level of meteorological elements on multiple loads， which is important for the further research on energy system planning and load forecasting.

Key words: integrated intelligent energy system, climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system （CSLs-IES）, causality analysis, convergent cross mapping, sliding window, sensitivity coefficient, load forecasting

CLC Number:

TK01：TM714

JIN Li, ZHANG Li, REN Juguang, TANG Yang, TANG Qiao, LIU Xiaobing. Causality analysis of climate sensitive loads in integrated energy system based on convergence cross mapping[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2023, 45(1): 23-30.

Figures/Tables 12

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气象因素	与电负荷的因果关系强度	与冷负荷的因果关系强度
风速	0.43	0.40
湿度	0.23	0.41
温度	0.73	0.79
压强	0.42	0.33
露点	0.21	0.44
实感温度	0.78	0.80
温湿指数	0.67	0.72
人体舒适度	0.72	0.76

气象因素	电负荷敏感度	冷负荷敏感度
温度	0.68	0.84
实感温度	1.23	1.50
温湿指数	3.24	3.32
人体舒适度	1.30	1.32