Integrated Intelligent Energy ›› 2023, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (8): 26-35.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2023.08.004

• Dual Carbon Projects • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Simulation for CO2 emissions from private vehicles in Beijing under different energy strategies

HE Shuwei1,2(), HAN Yinghui1,3,*(), XU Wenbin4(), ZHANG Yuanxun2,*(), SHAN Yulong3(), YU Yunbo3()   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    2. Yanshan Earth Critical Zone and Surface Flux Observation and Research Station, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China
    3. Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
    4. Science and Technology on Optical Radiation Laboratory, Beijing Institute of Environmental Characteristics, Beijing 100854, China
  • Received:2023-06-02 Revised:2023-06-14 Published:2023-08-25
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFE0209500)

Abstract:

In the context of global warming and climate change, reduction of carbon emissions has become a major concern. To solve this problem,the carbon emissions from private vehicles in Beijing with different energy policies are analysed. The number of private vehicles,energy consumptions of vehicles, emission coefficient of vehicles and carbon emissions from power generation are intensively studied. The carbon emission models of private vehicles, freight cars and vehicles for various purposes in Beijing are established by system dynamics, and their carbon emissions from 2030 and 2060 are studied. The models calculate the carbon emissions from private vehicles in Beijing between 2010 and 2060 under four scenarios: the basic scenario, electric vehicle (EV) substitution, clean energy, and combined utilization of EV substitution and clean energy. Although the carbon peaking can be achieved under all the four scenarios, but the goal can hardly be achieved by 2030 under the basic scenario. The other three scenario can accelerate the pursuit of the goal. Compared with the carbon emissions under the basic scenario, the carbon emissions from vehicles under clean energy scenario can be reduced by 5.7%, that under EV substitution scenario can be reduced by 20.0%, and that with combined utilization of EV substitution and clean energy can be reduced by 34.3%. It can be seen that the EV substitution strategy implemented at user end is prior to the clean energy strategy implemented at source end. However, the combination of clean energy strategy and EV substitution strategy demonstrates a synergistic effect in carbon emission reduction, surpassing the sum of the reduction made by the two strategies. The sensitivity analysis reveals that EV substitution at consumption end, clean energy generation at source side, and the combustion efficiency of diesel and gasoline engines are the primary factors influencing carbon emissions. This study provides insightful information for decision-makers, promoting low-carbon development of energy and transportation sectors in Beijing, and offering a new perspective for researches on carbon emissions from these two sectors.

Key words: carbon emissions, private vehicle, system dynamics, energy policy, scenarios simulation, carbon peak, clean energy

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