Simulation for CO2 emissions from private vehicles in Beijing under different energy strategies

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2023.08.004

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of global warming and climate change， reduction of carbon emissions has become a major concern. To solve this problem，the carbon emissions from private vehicles in Beijing with different energy policies are analysed. The number of private vehicles，energy consumptions of vehicles， emission coefficient of vehicles and carbon emissions from power generation are intensively studied. The carbon emission models of private vehicles， freight cars and vehicles for various purposes in Beijing are established by system dynamics， and their carbon emissions from 2030 and 2060 are studied. The models calculate the carbon emissions from private vehicles in Beijing between 2010 and 2060 under four scenarios： the basic scenario， electric vehicle （EV） substitution， clean energy， and combined utilization of EV substitution and clean energy. Although the carbon peaking can be achieved under all the four scenarios， but the goal can hardly be achieved by 2030 under the basic scenario. The other three scenario can accelerate the pursuit of the goal. Compared with the carbon emissions under the basic scenario， the carbon emissions from vehicles under clean energy scenario can be reduced by 5.7%， that under EV substitution scenario can be reduced by 20.0%， and that with combined utilization of EV substitution and clean energy can be reduced by 34.3%. It can be seen that the EV substitution strategy implemented at user end is prior to the clean energy strategy implemented at source end. However， the combination of clean energy strategy and EV substitution strategy demonstrates a synergistic effect in carbon emission reduction， surpassing the sum of the reduction made by the two strategies. The sensitivity analysis reveals that EV substitution at consumption end， clean energy generation at source side， and the combustion efficiency of diesel and gasoline engines are the primary factors influencing carbon emissions. This study provides insightful information for decision-makers， promoting low-carbon development of energy and transportation sectors in Beijing， and offering a new perspective for researches on carbon emissions from these two sectors.

Key words: carbon emissions, private vehicle, system dynamics, energy policy, scenarios simulation, carbon peak, clean energy

CLC Number:

X169

HE Shuwei, HAN Yinghui, XU Wenbin, ZHANG Yuanxun, SHAN Yulong, YU Yunbo. Simulation for CO₂ emissions from private vehicles in Beijing under different energy strategies[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2023, 45(8): 26-35.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig.1

Table 1

Parameters of the system model

参数	含义	数值
t	模拟的时长	0 $∼$ 50 a
C_PEV	电车平均每100 km电耗	12 kW·h
C_PFV	燃油车平均每100 km油耗	11.1 L
C_PDV	柴油货车平均每100 km油耗	23.0 L
E_other	其他用途私有车CO₂排放量	3.855 423×10⁷ t
$f C O 2$	CO₂排放因子	柴油,2.69 kg/L;车用汽油,2.14 kg/L;标准煤,2.62 kg/kg
f_E-C	耗电量-标准煤转换因子	0.378 kg/(kW·h)
p_EV	电车在私人乘用车中的保有量占比	分情景赋予不同的值
p_FV	传统燃油车在私人乘用车中的保有量占比	分情景赋予不同的值
p_RE	可再生能源比例	分情景赋予不同的值
p_GDP	北京市年均GDP变化率	2010 —2021年历史数据，2021年后为0.05

Table 1

Table 2

Variables and calculation formulas of the model

变量	含义	计算公式	单位
N_PPV	北京市私人乘用车保有量	43.417lnt+369.74	万辆，(Saturation: $N P P V ≥ 363.13$ )
N_DV	北京市私人货运汽车保有量	0.357 9t²-1.857 3t+9.163 3	万辆，(Saturation: $N D V ≤ 40$ )
N_D	北京市机动车驾驶员数量	239.24lnt+597.9	万人，(Saturation: $N D ≥ 607.24$ )
M_PPV	私人乘用车年平均行驶里程	4 936.59N_D/N_PPV	km/a
M_DV	私人货运汽车年平均行驶里程	$4 000 (1 + p G D P) t$	km/a，(Saturation: $M D V ≤ 105$ )
N_EV	北京市私人电车数量	$N P P V p E V$	万辆
N_FV	北京市私人传统燃油车数量	$N P P V - N E V$	万辆
C_EV	平均每辆电车年耗电量	$C P E V M P P V / 100$	kW·h
C_FV	平均每辆传统燃油车的年油耗（汽油）	$C P F V M P P V / 100$	L
C_DV	平均每辆私人货车的年柴油消耗量（柴油)	$C P D V N D V / 100$	L
C_EV,all	北京市私人电车年总用电量	$N E V C E V$	kW·h
C_FV,all	北京市私人传统燃油车年总耗油量（汽油）	$N F V C F V$	L
C_DV,all	北京市私人货车年总耗油量（柴油）	$N D V C D V$	L
E_EV	北京市私人电车年CO₂排放量	$f C O 2 C E V, a l l f E - C (1 - p R E)$	t
E_FV	北京市私人传统燃油车年CO₂排放量	$f C O 2, F C F V, a l l$	t
E_DV	北京市私人货车年CO₂排放量	$f C O 2, D C D V, a l l$	t
E_PPV	北京市私人所有车辆年CO₂排放量	E_EV+E_FV+E_DV+E_other	t
E_all	北京市私有车辆的累计CO₂排放量（从2010年开始）	INTEG(E_PPV)	t

Table 2

Table 3

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Table 4

Fig.5

Fig.6

Fig.7

Fig.8

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情景	参数	数值
基准情景（Base Case）	私人乘用车中电车保有量占比p_EV,Base	WITH LOOKUP (Time), (2010, 0), (2020, 0.06)^[19], (2030, 0.10), (2040,0.20), (2050, 0.30), (2060, 0.40)
基准情景（Base Case）	可再生能源比例p_RE,Base	WITH LOOKUP (Time), (2010, 0), (2020, 0.104)^[20], (2025, 0.144)^[20], (2030, 0.250)^[21], (2040, 0.300), (2050, 0.350), (2060, 0.400)
燃料替代情景(EV Substitution）	私人乘用车中电车保有量占比p_EV,EVS	WITH LOOKUP (Time), (2010, 0), (2020, 0.06), (2030, 0.30), (2040, 0.50), (2050, 0.80), (2060, 1.00)
燃料替代情景(EV Substitution）	可再生能源比例p_RE,EVS	p_RE,EVS=p_RE,Base
清洁能源情景(Clean Energy）	私人乘用车中电车保有量占比p_EV,CE	p_EV,CE=p_EV,Base
清洁能源情景(Clean Energy）	可再生能源比例p_RE,CE	WITH LOOKUP (Time), (2010, 0), (2020, 0.104), (2030, 0.500), (2040, 0.800), (2050, 0.900), (2060, 1.000)
燃料替代和清洁能源两者实施情景(Green Action)	私人乘用车中电车保有量占比p_EV,GA	p_EV,GA=p_EV,EVS
燃料替代和清洁能源两者实施情景(Green Action)	可再生能源比例p_RE,GA	p_RE,GA= p_RE,CE

年份	真实值/万辆	模拟值/万辆	误差/%
2020	478.03	469.71	-1.77
2019	471.77	465.14	-1.43
2018	462.46	460.02	-0.53
2017	453.68	454.23	0.12
2016	440.95	447.53	1.47
2015	429.39	439.62	2.33
2014	425.98	429.93	0.92
2013	415.89	417.44	0.37
2012	396.56	399.83	0.82
2011	378.50	369.74	-2.37

Simulation for CO₂ emissions from private vehicles in Beijing under different energy strategies

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