A three-point probabilistic load flow estimation algorithm for the power system considering photovoltaic uncertainties

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2022.09.001

Abstract

Abstract:

As the access proportions of renewable energy and adjustable load rise,the traditional power system faces increasingly complex uncertainties. In order to effectively describe the influence of uncertain factors on system operation,a probabilistic load flow calculation method based on three-point estimation method（3PEM）is proposed. Firstly,3PEM takes 2m+1 sampling strategy to reduce the sampling time. Combining cumulant method and Cornish-Fisher series,the probabilistic load flow of the power system taking adjustable load and PV uncertainty into considerations is described quantitatively. The method is verified by an IEEE 33 node system. Taking the results obtained from Monte Carlo method as the reference,the proposed method is proved to be accurate and fast. Further study is made on comparing the effects of PV power grid-connection on the probability load flow,and the results show that the closer the PV power connection point is to the power system,the more significant impact is on the power system.

Key words: renewable energy, probabilistic flow, three-point estimation, cumulant, Cornish-Fisher series expansion, PV

CLC Number:

TK01：TM73

GAO Ming, CHEN Jiahao, WANG Lixiao, TANG Wuchen, WANG Zhidong, ZHANG Zifan, MA Haixia, FENG Ruijue, ZHOU Changpeng. A three-point probabilistic load flow estimation algorithm for the power system considering photovoltaic uncertainties[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2022, 44(9): 1-10.

Figures/Tables 10

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Table 1

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Table 2

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节点号	计及光伏(标幺值)		不计光伏(标幺值)		节点号	计及光伏(标幺值)		不计光伏(标幺值)
节点号	期望值	标准差	期望值	标准差	节点号	期望值	标准差	期望值	标准差
1	0.000 0	0.00E+00	0.000 0	0.00E+00	18	0.916 9	3.93E-03	0.913 1	2.30E-03
2	0.997 1	9.16E-05	0.997 0	7.30E-05	19	0.996 6	9.89E-05	0.996 5	8.20E-05
3	0.983 5	5.74E-04	0.982 9	4.53E-04	20	0.993 0	2.59E-04	0.992 9	2.53E-04
4	0.976 2	7.99E-04	0.975 5	6.34E-04	21	0.992 3	2.99E-04	0.992 2	2.94E-04
5	0.969 0	1.05E-03	0.968 1	8.33E-04	22	0.991 7	3.40E-04	0.991 6	3.36E-04
6	0.951 0	1.72E-03	0.949 7	1.40E-03	23	0.980 1	7.99E-04	0.979 3	6.31E-04
7	0.947 6	1.83E-03	0.946 2	1.47E-03	24	0.973 4	1.17E-03	0.972 7	1.06E-03
8	0.943 1	2.09E-03	0.941 3	1.57E-03	25	0.970 1	1.40E-03	0.969 4	1.31E-03
9	0.937 3	2.49E-03	0.935 1	1.68E-03	26	0.949 1	1.78E-03	0.947 7	1.47E-03
10	0.932 0	2.91E-03	0.929 2	1.81E-03	27	0.946 5	1.87E-03	0.945 2	1.58E-03
11	0.931 3	2.99E-03	0.928 4	1.83E-03	28	0.935 1	2.38E-03	0.933 7	2.16E-03
12	0.929 9	3.14E-03	0.926 9	1.87E-03	29	0.926 9	2.80E-03	0.925 5	2.61E-03
13	0.924 5	3.76E-03	0.920 8	2.05E-03	30	0.923 3	2.99E-03	0.921 9	2.81E-03
14	0.922 3	3.81E-03	0.918 5	2.13E-03	31	0.919 2	3.12E-03	0.917 8	2.95E-03
15	0.920 9	3.84E-03	0.917 1	2.17E-03	32	0.918 3	3.16E-03	0.916 9	2.99E-03
16	0.919 5	3.86E-03	0.915 7	2.21E-03	33	0.918 0	3.16E-03	0.916 6	2.99E-03
17	0.917 5	3.91E-03	0.913 7	2.28E-03

起点	终点	计及光伏/MW		不计光伏/MW		起点	终点	计及光伏/MW		不计光伏/MW
起点	终点	期望值	标准差	期望值	标准差	起点	终点	期望值	标准差	期望值	标准差
1	2	3.334 0	2.69E-01	3.918 1	9.27E-02	20	21	0.180 1	1.28E-02	0.180 1	1.27E-02
2	3	2.863 1	2.67E-01	3.444 7	8.98E-02	21	22	0.090 0	9.01E-03	0.090 0	9.01E-03
3	4	1.793 2	2.54E-01	2.363 2	6.09E-02	3	23	0.939 6	6.14E-02	0.939 7	6.14E-02
4	5	1.658 9	2.51E-01	2.223 3	5.86E-02	23	24	0.846 5	6.03E-02	0.846 5	6.03E-02
5	6	1.585 8	2.49E-01	2.144 5	5.72E-02	24	25	0.421 3	4.22E-02	0.421 3	4.22E-02
6	7	1.095 0	3.71E-02	1.095 3	3.71E-02	6	26	0.404 0	2.41E-01	0.950 9	4.00E-02
7	8	0.893 1	3.11E-02	0.893 4	3.11E-02	26	27	0.342 4	2.41E-01	0.888 3	3.93E-02
8	9	0.688 3	2.33E-02	0.688 5	2.33E-02	27	28	0.280 3	2.40E-01	0.825 0	3.85E-02
9	10	0.624 2	2.22E-02	0.624 4	2.22E-02	28	29	0.753 2	3.67E-02	0.753 6	3.68E-02
10	11	0.560 7	2.11E-02	0.560 8	2.11E-02	29	30	0.625 6	3.39E-02	0.625 8	3.39E-02
11	12	0.515 1	2.06E-02	0.515 2	2.06E-02	30	31	0.421 8	2.67E-02	0.421 8	2.68E-02
12	13	0.454 3	1.96E-02	0.454 4	1.96E-02	31	32	0.270 2	2.19E-02	0.270 2	2.19E-02
13	14	0.391 7	1.84E-02	0.391 7	1.84E-02	32	33	0.060 0	6.00E-03	0.060 0	6.00E-03
14	15	0.270 9	1.38E-02	0.270 9	1.39E-02	21	8	0.000 0	0.00E+00	0.000 0	0.00E+00
15	16	0.210 6	1.24E-02	0.210 6	1.24E-02	9	15	0.000 0	0.00E+00	0.000 0	0.00E+00
16	17	0.150 3	1.09E-02	0.150 3	1.09E-02	12	22	0.000 0	0.00E+00	0.000 0	0.00E+00
17	18	0.090 1	9.00E-03	0.090 1	9.01E-03	18	33	0.000 0	0.00E+00	0.000 0	0.00E+00
2	19	0.361 1	1.81E-02	0.361 1	1.81E-02	25	29	0.000 0	0.00E+00	0.000 0	0.00E+00
19	20	0.271 0	1.57E-02	0.271 0	1.57E-02