关键词: 综合能源系统, 分布式鲁棒, 阶梯式碳交易, 可再生能源, 碳排放

Abstract: In order to effectively improve the economic efficiency to reduce carbon emissions, promote the efficient use of hydrogen energy, and reduce the uncertainty of renewable energy output, a low carbon optimization model based on historical data-driven distributed robust Integrated Energy System (IES) is proposed. Firstly, a data-driven uncertainty quantification method is used to construct a fuzzy set of probability distributions with joint constraints of 1-parameter and ∞-parameter based on the historical data of renewable energy output, and a min-max-min three-layer distributed robust optimization framework is constructed by searching for the worst-case scenario probability distributions, so as to reduce scheduling conservatism while guaranteeing the robustness of the system; Secondly, the integration of stepped carbon trading mechanism, Power-to-Gas(P2G) technology through the phased carbon price incentives to reduce emissions, to achieve the closed-loop utilization of carbon elements in the system, taking into account the environmental benefits and economic costs; Finally, the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm is used to solve the problem. The results show that the fuzzy set based on the integrated paradigm reduces the daily dispatch cost by 1.6% on average compared with the fuzzy set with a single paradigm, which further reduces the conservatism of the renewable energy output; meanwhile, in the case of rationally dividing the stepped interval, the carbon emission and the carbon transaction cost are reduced by 16.35% and 22.35%, which achieves the relative balance of carbon emission and carbon transaction cost, and verifies the relative advantage of it in reducing the carbon transaction cost is more advantageous. The proposed model provides a theoretical support and practical reference for the planning and operation of integrated energy systems.

Key words: integrated energy systems, distributed robustness, cascade carbon trading, renewable energy, carbon emission