Opportunities and challenges faced by energy and power industry with the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-1951.2021.06.003

Abstract

Abstract:

The goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak has been upgraded to a national strategy.As an important field of the goal,the follow-up development of power industry plays a vital role in achieving carbon neutrality and carbon peak in China.Based on the definition and development requirements of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,under the current situation of China's energy structure and carbon emissions,there are four main paths to achieve carbon neutrality which include clean and low-carbon power production,application of hydrogen energy,development of carbon capture technology and promotion of the utilization of electricity and hydrogen energy in transportation industry.With the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak,energy and power industry faces opportunities and challenges in three aspects,carbon trading market,energy storage and industrial transformation between different industries.Analyzing these challenges provides a reference for the energy and power industry to adapt to the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak.

Key words: carbon neutrality, carbon peak, electric energy, carbon emission, low-carbon economy, carbon sequestration, hydrogen energy, carbon capture, renewable energy consumption

CLC Number:

TM732：TK-9

YU Xiaobao, ZHENG Dandan, YANG Kang, KONG Jie, ZHANG Tianhao. Opportunities and challenges faced by energy and power industry with the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak[J]. Huadian Technology, 2021, 43(6): 21-32.

Figures/Tables 15

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.1

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Tab.2

Fig.6

Fig.7

Fig.8

Fig.9

Fig.10

Fig.11

Fig.12

Fig.13

References 30

[1]	李梁. 酷热2019再敲全球变暖警钟[J]. 生态经济, 2020,36(5):1-4.
	LI Liang. The extreme heat of 2019 will ring the global warming alarm again[J]. Ecological Economy, 2020,36(5):1-4. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00242-1
[2]	郭霄鹏, 刘芸. 世界正面临严重气候危机[J]. 生态经济, 2020,36(1):1-4.
	GUO Xiaopeng, LIU Yun. The world is facing a serious climate crisis[J]. Ecological Economy, 2020,36(1):1-4. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00242-1
[3]	何建坤. 碳达峰碳中和目标导向下能源和经济的低碳转型[J]. 环境经济研究, 2021,6(1):1-9.
	HE Jiankun. Low carbon transformation of energy and economy aiming for the peaking of carbon emission and carbon neutrality[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics, 2021,6(1):1-9.
[4]	张九天, 张璐. 面向碳中和目标的碳捕集、利用与封存发展初步探讨[J]. 热力发电, 2021,50(1):1-6.
	ZHANG Jiutian, ZHANG Lu. Preliminary discussion on development of carbon,utilization and storage for carbon neutralization[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2021,50(1):1-6.
[5]	喻小宝, 郑丹丹. 动力学视角下电力行业碳减排反馈机制研究[J]. 上海电力大学学报, 2020,36(6):603-612.
	YU Xiaobao, ZHENG Dandan. Feedback mechanism of carbon reduction in power industry under the perspective of dynamics[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power, 2020,36(6):603-612.
[6]	徐冬, 孙楠楠, 张九天, 等. 通过耦合碳捕集、利用与封存实现低碳制氢的潜力分析[J/OL]. 热力发电:1-9.(2021-04-22)[2021-05-20]. https://doi.org/10.19666/j.rlfd.202102034.
	XU Dong, SUN Nannan, ZHANG Jiutian, et al. Potential analysis of carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage equipped low carbon hydrogen production[J]. Thermal Power Generation:1-9. (2021-04-22)[2021-05-20]. https://doi.org/10.19666/j.rlfd.202102034.
[7]	黄欣, 凌能祥. 基于排放权交易与减排研发补贴的政企减排微分博弈模型[J]. 系统管理学报, 2020,29(6):1150-1160.
	HUANG Xin, LING Nengxiang. A differential game model of government and enterprise emission reduction based on emission permits trading and subsidy for emission abatement[J]. Journal of Systems & Management, 2020,29(6):1150-1160.
[8]	高涵, 张建寰, 赵静波, 等. 基于电动汽车创新技术应用的碳减排潜力分析[J]. 科技管理研究, 2020,40(19):230-236.
	GAO Han, ZHANG Jianhuan, ZHAO Jingbo, et al. Analysis of carbon emission reduction potential based on application of innovative technologies of electric vehicles[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2020,40(19):230-236.
[9]	王利宁, 彭天铎, 向征艰, 等. 碳中和目标下中国能源转型路径分析[J]. 国际石油经济, 2021,29(1):2-8.
	WANG Lining, PENG Tianduo, XIANG Zhengjian, et al. Analysis of China's energy transition pathways under the goal of carbon neutrality[J]. International Petroleum Economics, 2021,29(1):2-8.
[10]	黄畅, 张攀, 王卫良, 等. 燃煤发电产业升级支撑我国节能减排与碳中和国家战略[J]. 热力发电, 2021,50(4):1-6.
	HUANG Chang, ZHANG Pan, WANG Weiliang, et al. The upgradation of coal-fired power generation industry supports China's energy conservation,emission reduction and carbon neutrality[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2021,50(4):1-6.
[11]	刘晓龙, 崔磊磊, 李彬, 等. 碳中和目标下中国能源高质量发展路径研究[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2021,23(3):1-8.
	LIU Xiaolong, CUI Leilei, LI Bin, et al. Research on the high-quality development path of China's energy industry under the target of carbon neutralization[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2021,23(3):1-8.
[12]	焦念志, 刘纪化, 石拓, 等. 实施海洋负排放践行碳中和战略[J]. 中国科学:地球科学, 2021,51(4):632-643.
	JIAO Nianzhi, LIU Jihua, SHI Tuo, et al. Implement negative ocean emissions and implement a carbon neutral strategy[J]. Scientia Sinica(Terrae), 2021,51(4):632-643.
[13]	龙惟定, 梁浩. 我国城市建筑碳达峰与碳中和路径探讨[J]. 暖通空调, 2021,51(4):1-17.
	LONG Weiding, LIANG Hao. Discussion on paths of carbon peak and carbon neutralization of urban buildings in China[J]. Heating Ventilating & Air Conditioning, 2021,51(4):1-17.
[14]	王灿, 张雅欣. 碳中和愿景的实现路径与政策体系[J]. 中国环境管理, 2020,12(6):58-64.
	WANG Can, ZHANG Yaxin. Implementation pathway and policy system of carbon neutrality vision[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Management, 2020,12(6):58-64.
[15]	胡鞍钢. 中国实现2030年前碳达峰目标及主要途径[J]. 北京工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2021,21(3):1-15.
	HU Angang. China's goal of achieving carbon peak by 2030 and its main approaches[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2021,21(3):1-15.
[16]	耿国彪. “碳达峰”“碳中和”将如何实现[J]. 绿色中国, 2021(6):34-39.
	GENG Guobiao. How will "Carbon Peak" and "Carbon Neutral" be realized?[J]. Green China, 2021(6):34-39.
[17]	王迅. 低碳经济的发展模式研究[J]. 长江技术经济, 2020,4(S2):128-129.
	WANG Xun. Research on development model of low carbon economy[J]. Technology and Economy of Changjiang, 2020,4(S2):128-129.
[18]	IPCC. Special report on global warming of 1.5 ℃[M]. UK: Cambridge University Press, 2018.
[19]	朱婧, 刘学敏. 能源活动碳排放核算与减排政策选择[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2016,26(7):70-75.
	ZHU Jing, LIU Xuemin. Accounting and reduction policy on carbon emissions from energy activities[J]. China Population Resources and Environment, 2016,26(7):70-75.
[20]	张振芳. 露天煤矿碳排放量核算及碳减排途径研究[D]. 徐州:中国矿业大学, 2013.
[21]	陈晓科, 周天睿, 李欣, 等. 电力系统的碳排放结构分解与低碳目标贡献分析[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2012,36(2):18-25.
	CHEN Xiaoke, ZHOU Tianrui, LI Xin, et al. A review of CIRED 2011 on development of distributed energy resources and energy efficiency improvement on customer side[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2012,36(2):18-25.
[22]	ENDO N, GOSHOMEA K, TETSUHIKO M, et al. Thermal management and power saving operations for improved energy efficiency within a renewable hydrogen energy system utilizing metal hydride hydrogen storage[J]. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2021,46(1):262-271. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2020.10.002
[23]	高华. 全球碳捕捉与封存(CCS)技术现状及应用前景[J]. 煤炭经济研究, 2020,40(5):33-38.
	GAO Hua. Research on global CCS technology status and application prospect[J]. Coal Economic Research, 2020,40(5):33-38.
[24]	何义团, 张鹏博, 邵毅明, 等. 燃油与纯电动汽车流通过程中CO₂排放分析[J]. 重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版), 2019,38(7):126-130.
	HE Yituan, ZHANG Pengbo, SHAO Yiming, et al. CO₂ emission of fuel and pure electric vehicle in the process of circulation[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2019,38(7):126-130.
[25]	冯升波, 黄建, 周伏秋, 等. 碳市场对可再生能源发电行业的影响[J]. 宏观经济管理, 2019(11):55-62.
	FENG Shengbo, HUANG Jian, ZHOU Fuqiu, et al. The impacts of the carbon market on the industry of renewable energy power generation[J]. Macroeconomic Management, 2019(11):55-62.
[26]	李铁, 李正文, 杨俊友, 等. 计及调峰主动性的风光水火储多能系统互补协调优化调度[J]. 电网技术, 2020,44(10):3622-3630.
	LI Tie, LI Zhengwen, YANG Junyou, et al. Coordination and optimal scheduling of multi-energy complementary system considering peak regulation initiative[J]. Power System Technology, 2020,44(10):3622-3630.
[27]	薛恒. 电力行业节能减排及低碳化发展分析[J]. 应用能源技术, 2021(1):49-51.
	XUE Heng. Analysis on energy saving and emission reduction and low carbonization development of electric power industry[J]. Applied Energy Technology, 2021(1):49-51.
[28]	史新红, 郑亚先, 范振宇, 等. 新能源参与省级现货市场的模式设计[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2020,3(5):451-460.
	SHI Xinhong, ZHENG Yaxian, FAN Zhenyu, et al. Model design considering participation of variable renewable energy in provincial spot market[J]. Journal of Global Energy Interconnection, 2020,3(5):451-460.
[29]	屈博, 刘畅, 李德智, 等. “碳中和”目标下的电能替代发展战略研究[J]. 电力需求侧管理, 2021,23(2):1-3,9.
	QU Bo, LIU Chang, LI Dezhi, et al. Research on the development strategy of electricity substitution under the target of "carbon neutral"[J]. Power Demand Side Managemen, 2021,23(2):1-3,9.
[30]	王海燕, 王楠. 中国综合交通运输体系碳排放影响因素研究[J]. 物流技术, 2019,38(2):78-83.
	WANG Haiyan, WANG Nan. Research on factors affecting carbon emissions of China's comprehensive transportation system[J]. Logistics Technology, 2019,38(2):78-83.

行业	可持续需求	低碳发电	电气化	燃料转换	碳封存
农、林、牧、渔业	√				√
采矿业	√	√	√	√	√
制造业	√	√	√	√
电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业		√			√
建筑业	√	√	√	√
交通运输、仓储和邮政业	√		√	√

年份	一次能源消耗标准煤/亿t	平均发电煤耗/ [g·（kW·h）^-1]	折算电力需求/ (TW·h)	非化石能源占比/%	非化石电力需求/(TW·h)	水电发电量/(TW·h)	核电发电量/(TW·h)	生物质发电量/(TW·h)	风光发电量需求/(TW·h)	风光实际发电量/ (TW·h)	风光实际发电量占比/%
2015	42.99	315.4	13 630.3	12.10	1 649.3	1 112.7	171.4	52.7	312.5	223.3	3.98
2016	43.58	312.1	13 963.5	13.50	1 885.1	1 174.8	213.2	64.7	432.4	308.9	5.16
2017	44.85	309.4	14 495.8	13.80	2 000.4	1 194.7	248.1	79.4	478.2	421.0	6.56
2018	46.40	307.6	15 084.5	14.30	2 157.1	1 232.1	295.0	90.6	539.4	543.5	7.77
2019	48.60	306.9	15 835.8	15.30	2 422.9	1 301.9	348.7	111.1	661.2	630.0	8.60
2025E	54.50	295.0	18 458.3	20.00	3 691.7	1 615.0	542.8	169.2	1 364.6
				21.00	3 876.2				1 549.2
				22.00	4 060.8				1 733.8
2030E	59.60	285.5	20 890.2	25.00	5 222.6	1 720.2	764.2	205.9	2 532.3
				26.00	5 431.5				2 741.2
				27.00	5 640.4				2 950.1